What sort of questions would surround a Filipe Toledo world title?
When I think of Pipeline in season it evokes the pleasure of seeing the world’s best surfers amid the turbulence of the world’s heaviest wave. Pipeline amplifies weakness and has no time for gratuitous theatrics, claims aside.
In three weeks, six surfers will compete to win the 2015 world title: Mick Fanning, Adriano De Souza, Owen Wright, Julian Wilson, Gabriel Medina and Filipe Toledo.
Five of the six are comfortable at Pipe. One is not.
The scenarios are many, and you can read the spreadsheet here.
Most what-ifs I’ve read presume the waves are going to be six-feet or better, a classic mid-sized west-north-west swell with south-east winds.
But the cumbersome nature of the WSL’s format, with its 36 surfers and its two no-loser rounds (rounds one and four), and the unlikelihood of a swell stretching for such a period, means crucial heats have a nightmarish tenacity to be run in poor waves.
Run down a list of the Pipeline Masters winners and if it ain’t Kelly, John John, Jamie O’Brien, KP or Andy Irons in the last dozen years, it wasn’t classic Pipe.
So what is possible this year if the first few rounds of Pipe run in marginal surf, is the elimination of Mick Fanning. And if Mick finishes 13th or worse, this scenario comes into play.
Let’s examine.
– Owen Wright & Julian Wilson will need a 1st
– Gabriel Medina will need a 3rd or better
– Adriano de Souza will need a 9th or better
– Filipe Toledo will need a 13th or better to clinch the World Title
Therefore, Filipe Toledo, who made pro surfing history by not catching a wave in a crucial heat at Teahupoo and later explaining it away with an unconvincing story about a sore elbow, could swing through one heat in crummy surf, lose when it gets good, and win the world title.
Can you imagine a world title with more question marks around it?
How would history record such a thing?
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My shitty predictions
– if its small and shitty Pipe a brazzo will win the title
– if its big heaving scary backdoor Fanning will win the title but not the event
– if its big heaving scary pipe, fanning will get close but dip out in the quarters, and Medina will win the title and possibly the event ( that caused me pain to type…)
– dream scenario….final between Julian and Owen for the world title with all other contenders eliminated early…If backdoor Julian wins, if Pipe Owen wins.
Now everyone just sit back and watch how wrong I’ll be!
I hope it’s neckbreaking 2nd reef missers that jack on 1st…..J.O.B. or Mason will take it.
I’d put money on Gabs over either in those conditions.
If it’s the size of 2009 Filipe could win Pipe…..WSL likes to hold in shit surf…..
There’s enough “world class waves” on tour that if Felipe were to clinch the world title at Pipe than so be it, and he would deservingly so be awarded the title. He would be the most all round surfer of the year. He still got a 9th in difficult but decent size Chopes, won at a tricky yet powerful Portugual and schooled the whole tour outside of Gabriel in the air all year long. You can’t question his world title credentials cause he ain’t no Greg Long or even a John John in the soupy stuff… But over the course of 11 events or however many there are he would have (theoretically speaking) got the job done.
Fuck I hope Mick schools the little fag at Pipe though.
He really best be looking at Owen and Gabs.
If Filipe wins the title he fully deserves it. The caliber of surfers and surfing this year especially from the rookies is as good as its ever been. Think back a couple of years ago when Dion Atkinson won rookie of the year with a tour ending 27th placing.
The brazilian rookies, to be precise.
You gotta feel for Ricardo. He punched out afew 18+ heat scores and still finished second…
He was lucky he got knocked off tour so quickly and was spared further humiliation.
Honest grafter, could’ve had a journeyman career if he had some backing earlier on.
Sometimes the dice just don’t roll in your favour. Ricardo unfortunately over his career hasn’t even been allowed to pull the boardgame off the shelf. Resorting to a crowdfunding campaign to get on tour. {thankfully my $50 wasn’t “wasted” according to my partner as he made it} I even was labelled a unpatriotic douche-bag for not selecting him in my Fantasy Surfer team at Snapper such was the fever here in NZ.
Any word on whether he’ll be having another go at the QS in 2016?
No, he’s apparently going to hit up his fallback career – Econ Professor. I mean, surfers tend to hang it up early and that education’s always good to have, right?
Funny, I was going to hit up my fallback career of QS grinder in 2016.
But seriously, that’s his plan, straight away? No aspirations to ride the Dion Atkinson or Timmy Reyes re-qualification train into his mid-30s? Finally, a man with dignity.
LOL, I have no idea. That said, I’m fairly confident he’s NOT qualified to be an economics professor.
I would love to see him become a lecturer at Waikato one day, shitting on the both of us.
Not yet, But I will find out. He didn’t hit the QS this year like a man that really cared about re-qualifying.
I just hope they run it if its pumping and dont go on hold until it suits the surfers who arent quite keen to surf when its 6ft plus. Seeing pumping pipe on lay days like last year would be the final nail in the coffin for the WSL and its mainstream campaign.
haha, you give death too much credit. WSL will live to fight another day in 2016 and beyond and you’ll watch every minute of it.
2ft onshore slop and I will still be glued.
i just want de Souza to win for the lols. the internet tantrum would be so epic
Stab would explode
They should record it with an asterisk just like Barry Bonds Home Runs. This whole year has been fucked. So many contests run in a disorganized fashion, long waits and a WSL that does not seem, in any way, to have their shit together. Fuck it, Felipe wins, the U.S. elects Trump and we try to move forward, shaking our heads in fervent disbelief.
What would the asterisk comment be..
*DIdnt charge at Teahupoo
In Round 5.
No. Didn’t even go at teahupoo
Now you are talking about last year, correct? Lol
Get your shit together Dan.
In Round 5. 2 rounds further than JJF went. Good point.
Great point. Take the kid that is probably more comfortable in big surf than any one else on tour and try to say Felipe is better than him because he made it further in the event. You stupid fuckwit. FELIPE TOLEDO DIDN’T EVEN CATCH A FUCKING WAVE. IN THE 40 YEARS OF PROFESSIONAL SURFING, THIS WAS UNPRECENDENTED. Fuck all you Brazilians.
why you yelling, bro? I just pointed out that he made it 2 rounds further than JJF. That’s fact.
I’m yelling because your point is not a valid point, and I also should apologize for the anti-brazilanism. You got under me skin. JJF is a better surfer in all conditions, my opinion, but he is inarguably the better surfer in waves of consequence and I don’t see how you could logically dispute that. Perhaps this year has made everyone a bit tense and only Pipe will answer our questions…..
Sorry, but no. The topic here is a Filipe world title. He made it to Round 5 at Chopes, 2 rounds further than JJF. There’s no reason to put any asterisk on his title if he wins, and pointing to a 5th round failure at Chopes comes off as desperate.
BTW, JJF is NOT a better surfer in all conditions. Filipe blows his doors in smaller waves. Blows. His. Doors. Don’t believe me? Check the results.
It would be great if you would just read the words I wrote and not interpret them to mean something else. You have done this many times my friend. I never said JJF was better in all conditions, I just said he is probably the most comfortable guy on tour in large surf. Yeah, Felipe rips and he’s a brilliant small wave surfer, but the undisputed fact is that he sat in the lineup and didn’t even catch 1 wave at Chopes-an unprecedented show of cowardice in the professional surfing world. Do you think these guys are all stoked when shit gets huge? NO. They are scared shitless, but they still have the merit to go out and catch a wave-your boy does not. He will NEVER live that down, no matter the amount of accolades in his future. Trying to defend this fact comes off as desperate. If Felipe wins a world title by getting a 13th at Pipe or if Pipe is tiny, it will hold as much significance as CJ’s world title.
Your words: just two posts up “You got under me (sic) skin. JJF is a better surfer in all conditions….” Are you drunk when you write this stuff? And again – Round 5 versus Round 3. Argue all you want.
Fuck the tour anyhow. You guys can have that freight training hot mess
Utah, save the name calling for elsewhere. YELLING IS ALL GOOD but we don’t want to drag BeachGrit into the gutter to fester next to Caveria…
You’re right about the Caps lock. Got a bit carried away. However, my passion was in the right place. Also, got a bit imperialistic. Sorry to all. Thanks Negatron
The wildcards hold the key…
Rarely
But sometimes, Gavin Gillete knocked Parko out of the Title race in 4-6ft Backdoor in 2009.
Didn’t JOB win as a wildcard ?
As much as I utterly detest JOB with a passion he could throw a major spanner in anyones draw. As could Mason Ho. Wildcards in any other comp are usually pointless (I’m discounting Portugal here) but not at Pipe.
If the swell is proper Medina will win the title.
I guess you started watching this tour this year. If wasn’t for Vasco and Federico in the previous comp. you would never say that. Australia (with 3 events per year), Brazil, Hawaii and USA have better surfers, so better wild cards, than Portugal. In Tahiti you always have a great surfer winning the trials (or some invited) that make damage in the contest (i.e Bruno Santos, Nathan Hedge, Shane Dorian etc). Actually Fiji and Europe are the WORST for wild cards.
Hmmm.
So when was the last time a wild card did any proper damage other than Dane (who shouldn’t really count anyway)?
You’re right though. I did only start watching this year. And rollerblading. I really like rollerblading.
The last time? Portugal. So, in your logic what counts is the previous competition, right? Suddenly this is more relevant that Fanning winning at Bells, Bruno Santos winning Teahupo, Parko winning at JBay, Dorian Teahupoo etc. Ok, champ. The best wc’s are from Portugal bc they did well this year. Not relevant that this was the first time that any Portuguese WC (or Portuguese surfer really) had a good run in a CT event in Portugal
I really don’t understand the point you’re trying to make? Facts are facts. Wild cards don’t tend to do very well. I’m basing that on forever. Not just the last event.
”Wildcards in any other comp are usually pointless (I’m discounting Portugal here)” I’m saying that Portugal WC are no better (probably worse) than any other venue on the tour. So for me makes no sense the ”discounting Portugal” as last comp. was the first and only time a Portuguese wc did well in Portugal.
My statement regarding wildcards and Portugal was based around this year only. The wider statement being that wildcards tend to do shit house. This is far to complex and boring to warrant a thread in all honesty.
Ok, now make sense. The way you comment b4 it wasn’t clear at all that you were talking about this year alone.
About WC’s in general even thought I agree with you that most of the time they are not a big of a threat I think the whole idea is valid, to have a couple of different surfers in the mix. And I also think it make sense have some locals from time to time. Well, that’s just my opinion.
So you don’t like rollerblading?
Lmao couldn’t agree more can’t stand that dude, that being said he’s one of the best tube riders I’ve ever seen and has a chance to win any contest with pumping waves.
Not anymore, lost his nerve.
I’d say if Ian Walsh or Jack Robinson get a wildcard, look out. I think there are plenty of Hawaiians that could shake things up.
Also, for more evidence of Wildcard upsets from this season…Jay Davies at the BOX. How do you forget that?
Ross I assume you were directing that comment at Trogan Fan and not me, as I agree with you.
Ah yeah, Trojan Flag, sorry about that, wrong reply, I’m debating reposting to him, not sure it’s worth it
Nah it’s not worth it! No dramas.
I said rarely, not never.
I hope the El Nino swells make for exciting viewing
probably like this:
World Champion 2015: Filipe Toledo
Anyone remember how the waves were when Occy won his title? How about Curren’s 2nd or Slate’s 6th?
…an interesting question, so let’s examine. Occ’s world title has question marks all over it because Kelly didn’t surf that year, although he made an appearance at that year’s Pipe Masters, which he won. Curren’s second title was marked by his dominance of the first 10 events of the 18-event tour (he won five). Kelly’s sixth, meanwhile, is interesting because it was his last world title before his three-season hiatus, and the year Danny Wills and Mick Campbell spectacularly misfired at Pipe.
I mostly agree with Trogan Fan, I certainly can’t remember that level of detail. The only questionable title that springs to my mind is CJ’s… sorry CJ.
I’ve got to agree with Troges too.
Prior to 2006 and the advent of webcasting most people had no fucking idea what was really happening on Tour.
We relied on sources like Sarge for info….and he turned out to be not the most objective.
3 pages & 3 months later in surfer was hot news back in the day ….
agree with that, but your own logic should lead to opposite conclusion.
Because we now do have the benefit of seeing the actual waves and everything being recorded and accessible for replay at all times, Toledo’s “I would prefer not” moment could loom large in the collective memory.
asterisk city.
that is true. But I still think history will forget quickly, as Troges said.
but how were the waves? Did Curren charge or was is shoulder high Huntington all over the globe? I honestly don’t know.
Thought about this a bit. You may question CJ and Occy, but today’s 15 year olds just read that they won it. They don’t know what year Occy won, and they certainly don’t remember the 2001 campaign or even what ended it. Grumpy 45 year old surf fans may despise Filipe the World Champ if he wins, but history is always more forgiving.
The most important question: WILL John John Florence finally win his first Pipe Master?
No.
Curren and Occy can handle big surf. Felipe is obviously not comfortable in big stuff. Fuck off
Curren didn’t win in Hawaii until the end of his career. He wasn’t comfortable in big surf as a kid. You sure don’t know much, Johnny.
Rob Machado wasn’t comfortable in big surf either, but he made up for it. Can you not admit that Felipe blew it?! He was the first surfer in the history of professional surfing to NEVER CATCH A WAVE in his heat