How to bet smart on the Billabong Pipeline Masters!
One week ago, I discovered the website surf-stats. Wrote a story about it. (Read that here.)
Now, I’m compelled to pour everything related to competition through its prism. I used to be all gut instinct, but who knew cute smiles and a pleasant phone manner didn’t necessarily translate into results? Now I just Moneyball the hell out of it.
So for this year’s final event, the Billabong Pipeline Masters, I got the proprietor of surf-stats Balyn McDonald, to run the numbers on the five best, and five worst, surfers at Pipe. Here’s what he’s got.
- Kelly Slater: Top AHS (average heat score) for this event, for reefs, for lefts and for eight-to-ten-foot conditions for the past three seasons. Second best for six-to-eight-foot. Past champ.
- John John Florence: Best AHS in rights, six-to-eight-foot 2016 season, left/right breaks, second best in eight-to-ten-foot conditions and reefs, third best in four-to-six-foot and lefts, fourth best for AHS at this event. A consummate all-rounder.
- Gabriel Medina: Best in four-to-six foot, second best in lefts and 2016 season, third best for event AHS, reefs, eight-to-ten-foot, left/right breaks. Made the last two finals.
- Italo Ferreira*: Top five in the following categories: event AHS, overall AHS, six-to-eight foot, eight-to-ten foot, reefs, lefts and left/right breaks. A great dark horse at $40+ on most betting markets.
- Joel Parkinson: Past winner, top 5 in 2016 AHS, overall AHS, rights (second best), four-to-six foot (second best) and eight-to-ten foot. Best average results at this event of all surfers over the past five years.
Worst Five.
- Matt Wilkinson: In the past 5 years, has finished better than 25th at this event only once and his event AHS reflects this.
- Bede Durbidge: Coming back from massive injury at Pipe, and a past winner, but recent history is poor.
- Miguel Pupo: AHS figures of <10 in several significant categories.
- Wiggolly Dantas: Did poorly here last year, stats for these conditions aren’t great, especially if it’s big.
- Keanu Asing*: AHS figures for this event, for eight-to-ten foot, for reefs and (surprisingly) for lefts are all <10.
Fantasy Surfer projections
The best value for money on Fantasy Surfer is Seabass, at less than $15,000 per projected fantasy point
The worst is Wilko with a projected cost of $141,000 per point
(*data is only for 2015/16 seasons)
Oh! And my Fantasy Surfer team for Pipe?
Gabriel. John John. Kolohe. Kelly. Adriano. Julian. Bede.
Want to see the data in detail? Click here.
Brilliant. Once again the numbers tell us exactly what we can see with our own eyes by watching a couple of comps.
where’s Owen at? some stats.
I don’t care what the stats say Jordy is the worst backside tube rider on tour
which tour stop has tubes? all the stops i’ve seen have been 2ft wind slop.
100%, i’d take any of those “worst 5” over him
If Jordy becomes a ‘Pipe Master’ by winning at small backdoor I will burn by De Souza rash vest
wiggles might not have done too great in a couple comps out there but he surfs pipe better than most.
surfing not stats..
Can’t argue with the top 5 but anyone who is a past winner (unless it was at Gums…I don’t remember off the top of my head) surely doesn’t belong in the bottom 5. I get Bede’s injury but guys who get hurt usually are trying hard and not sitting on the outside with the anchor firmly ensconced on the reef.