How to bet smart on the Billabong Pipeline Masters!
One week ago, I discovered the website surf-stats. Wrote a story about it. (Read that here.)
Now, I’m compelled to pour everything related to competition through its prism. I used to be all gut instinct, but who knew cute smiles and a pleasant phone manner didn’t necessarily translate into results? Now I just Moneyball the hell out of it.
So for this year’s final event, the Billabong Pipeline Masters, I got the proprietor of surf-stats Balyn McDonald, to run the numbers on the five best, and five worst, surfers at Pipe. Here’s what he’s got.
- Kelly Slater: Top AHS (average heat score) for this event, for reefs, for lefts and for eight-to-ten-foot conditions for the past three seasons. Second best for six-to-eight-foot. Past champ.
- John John Florence: Best AHS in rights, six-to-eight-foot 2016 season, left/right breaks, second best in eight-to-ten-foot conditions and reefs, third best in four-to-six-foot and lefts, fourth best for AHS at this event. A consummate all-rounder.
- Gabriel Medina: Best in four-to-six foot, second best in lefts and 2016 season, third best for event AHS, reefs, eight-to-ten-foot, left/right breaks. Made the last two finals.
- Italo Ferreira*: Top five in the following categories: event AHS, overall AHS, six-to-eight foot, eight-to-ten foot, reefs, lefts and left/right breaks. A great dark horse at $40+ on most betting markets.
- Joel Parkinson: Past winner, top 5 in 2016 AHS, overall AHS, rights (second best), four-to-six foot (second best) and eight-to-ten foot. Best average results at this event of all surfers over the past five years.
- Matt Wilkinson: In the past 5 years, has finished better than 25th at this event only once and his event AHS reflects this.
- Bede Durbidge: Coming back from massive injury at Pipe, and a past winner, but recent history is poor.
- Miguel Pupo: AHS figures of <10 in several significant categories.
- Wiggolly Dantas: Did poorly here last year, stats for these conditions aren’t great, especially if it’s big.
- Keanu Asing*: AHS figures for this event, for eight-to-ten foot, for reefs and (surprisingly) for lefts are all <10.
Fantasy Surfer projections
The best value for money on Fantasy Surfer is Seabass, at less than $15,000 per projected fantasy point
The worst is Wilko with a projected cost of $141,000 per point
(*data is only for 2015/16 seasons)
Oh! And my Fantasy Surfer team for Pipe?
Gabriel. John John. Kolohe. Kelly. Adriano. Julian. Bede.