An extremely well-plotted betting slip by a former Fantasy Surfer winner…
Betting on surf contests flutters the lips, elevates the blood pressure and so on. Did you know that all the odds for WCT events are set by non-surfers using statistics and nothing else?
There is no insider trading, no quarter given to the surf forecast, no nod to a surfer’s affinity with a particular wave.
And what does that say to you, a life-long surfer, a student of the game?
Well, it screams advantage.
And, so, over the back end of the tour, BeachGrit, with a modest $500 deposit and the advice of former WCT surfer and 2015 Fantasy Surfer champion Blake Thornton, is going to beat hell out of Australia’s betting agencies.
Because the Surf Ranch Pro has evaporated the forty-year-old man-on-man format, opportunities are a little limited. You can bet on the winner and nothing else.
Still, let’s have some fun.
First, we’ll drop fifty dollars on Gabriel Medina, who is at 5-to-one. Thornton, who is thirty-three years old, says the event is, likely, a battle between Filipe Toledo and Gabriel but it’s Gab who has a slightly stronger backhand, on the face and in the tube. “Both are extremely strong on their forehands,” says Thornton, “but the amount of manoeuvres Gabriel’s able to do on his backhand and the way they’re linked together perfectly and how in the pocket they are and how he’ll go into the next one with with ease will be the difference.”
Second, forty dollars on Filipe at 3.75-to-one. This is a little hedge bet. A likely winner but at under four to one, not especially lucrative. With a hundred and fifty in the game, we’ll throw forty on Filipe to cover ourselves. “He has the wave completely dialled. Three full-rotation alley-oops on one wave is pretty unbelievable.”
Third, thirty dollars on the Australian Conner O’Leary at 61-to-one. (Yesterday, the shaper to the stars Matt Biolos said Conner had no chance. Thornton differs. )
Thornton says that because the right breaks differently to the left, two distinct barrels compared to one barrel and turns, the screw-foots have a slight advantage. And, says Thornton, “I was watching the highlights from Conner’s first trip there and I don’t think I’ve seen anyone surf a left like him.” Potential win: two gees.
Of the middle pack, Thornton says that were it a heat-by-heat event, Adriano would be a cinch to get through a few rounds but since it’s winner-only, at 26-to-one, you’d be a little nuts to go past Kolohe Andino (“He’s due for a big result”) and Kanoa Igarashi (“He’s looking amazing on those Sharp Eyes) at 41-to-one.
Throw ten bucks at the best performing surfer at the Founders’ Cup, Jordy Smith (11-to-one) and we’ve got a well plotted betting slip.
Or are we just throwing peanuts in the air?