From the Iron-clad-science Dept: Wave strength increasing by .5% a year for past 70 years!

Johnny get your gun!

If the last time you surfed was 1992 and you decided to dust off the ol’ potato chip this morning and paddle out at your local you might have noticed something. Namely that you were flying down the line 15% faster and your poundings were 15% more severe. Oh it would be easy to attribute these sensations to a Swiss cheese memory but there is actual scientific truth to bolster your impressions. Namely that wave strength has been increasing by half a percent for past 70 years!

Now let us turn to the august scientific journal Forbes for more.

“For the first time, we have identified a global signal of the effect of global warming in wave climate. In fact, wave power has increased globally by 0.4 percent per year since 1948, and this increase is correlated with the increasing sea-surface temperatures, both globally and by ocean regions,” said Borja G. Reguero, a researcher at the University of California, Santa Cruz and co-author of a new report published just published in Nature Communications.

The new study looked at how warmer upper oceans are influencing wind patterns, which then make ocean waves stronger, particularly in some interesting spots. The data shows that the most overall wave power by far can be found in the Southern Ocean, which is also seeing the most rapid increase in wave strength.

“The Southern Ocean (defined by the 40ºS latitudinal limit) is the most energetic basin and dominates the other oceans in terms of (wave power),” the report reads.

The study goes on to investigate how increasing sea surface temperatures, along with natural patterns like El Nino, have contributed to a trend that has seen a significant increase in wave power along the coasts of central America, South America and west Africa. During the same period, from 1985 – 2008, wave power in much of the Northern Hemisphere actually saw a slight decrease, although not enough to balance out the increase in other parts of the oceans.

Well shit. Never mind about you dusting off your potato chip and feeling the power unless you happen to be dusting it off in west Africa and… let’s be honest. Not a lot of BeachGrit‘s readership lives in west Africa.

As you were, I suppose.

But real quick before you go, should we all be climate change deniers just for fun? It seems like we could have a lot of fun and get into Forbes ourselves.

“Popular surf tabloid denies climate change is real!”

I like the look of that headline.

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Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago

No doubt
but could end up being the first surf related assassination.
Gotta be careful what you wish for, cinematic life and all.

Nick Richon
Nick Richon
7 years ago

Damn. I guess I’ve got to switch hemispheres, or sports, or maybe tabloids.

grumpy local
grumpy local
7 years ago

Technically, I live in west Africa and I can attest to the increase in severity of beatings.

Seas Nail
Seas Nail
7 years ago

Global warming is Scientism, not science. Climate change has always happened and always will happen with or without humans. We’ve all been taken for a good old ride in the name of control and a breathing tax for all.
Deforestation, plastic and industrial chemicals are the issue with human activity, not a natural gas present in trivial amounts in the atmosphere.

Mads Naeraa
Mads Naeraa
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

A sphincter says what?

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  Mads Naeraa

What?

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

I do hope you are being purposely silly.

Seas Nail
Seas Nail
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

This might be TLDR for most but here are my views on it.

For a start, CAGW has been debunked every which way from Sunday. The scandal of how Mann created his hockey stick is one example. So is East Anglian climategate. Then there’s the bogus 97% consensus that turned out to be an extreme abuse of statistics that bears absolutely no relationship to reality. There’s the innumerable places where the IPCC reports were edited to contradict the very climate scientists that supposedly contributed to them. There’s the falsification through extensive unwarranted secret “proprietary adjustments” of the historical records by NASA, NOAA and other governmental agencies. There’s the complete dominance of the IPCC by advocates, politicians and interns rather than climate scientists. It’s all a huge scandal that stinks worse with every passing year.

There’s the ridiculously hysterical alarmism that claims that we’re all going to drown because the ice caps will melt and the oceans will flood all the cities. And those of us who don’t drown will either starve to death or fry in catastrophic warming that will turn our planet into another Venus. Equally, the polar bears and the coral reefs will die, and the oceans will become acid baths. And just in case none of those things are enough, hurricanes and blizzards and all vaguely specified “extreme weather events” are also paradoxically blamed on global warming. It’s all ludicrous silliness worthy of Monty Python. There’s absolutely no danger of any of it happening. All have been debunked. And the absurd inclusion of perfectly ordinary winter weather and hurricanes as some of the effects of global warming makes the thesis unfalsifiable and therefore unscientific by definition.

There’s also the absolute ridiculousness of the chief claim itself. CO2 is 400 ppmv, or .04% of the atmosphere. The anthropogenic contribution to that is 3%, or .0012% of the atmosphere. But most of the greenhouse effect isn’t CO2 in the first place, it’s mostly due to water vapor and clouds (between 70% and 95%). Almost all of the variation in atmospheric CO2 is entirely natural and always will be. In particular, the oceans release many times (16x or more) the CO2 of humans. In addition there are volcanoes, life forms other than ourselves that also emit CO2 when they breathe and forest fires started by lightning. There are also the other probable natural contributors to climate cycles to be considered: variations in albedo, sunspot cycles, etc – not to mention that the CO2 levels always lag behind the temperature variations so it seems like temperature is the driver of CO2, not the other way around.

It should also be noted that average global temperature is only logarithmically sensitive to trace greenhouse gases such as CO2. In other words, if it could be proven that temperature rose 1 degree Celsius exclusively because of a CO2 doubling from 200 ppmv to 400 ppmv, then it would take another doubling from 400 ppmv to 800 ppmv to produce the next 1 degree Celsius rise. None of these facts are in dispute, this is iron-clad science.

So we see then, that anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 is a barely detectable increase in a trace gas contributing an insignificant and weakening minority of the greenhouse effect, which isn’t even the only system that has a warming effect on climate. Furthermore, the global climate system is prepared to gracefully handle many times that increase from natural sources. There’s actually no physical way possible that the anthropogenic portion of atmospheric CO2 could possibly have more than an extremely trivial effect on global climate. Only a homeopath (erroneously believes “dilution increases potency”) could possibly believe otherwise. It’s totally laughable and anybody with an ounce of independent thinking ability ought to immediately recognize just how ludicrous the entire thesis is.

Then there’s the fact that the climate models have been proven to be highly erroneous and without any predictive value whatsoever. They have predicted a “hot spot” in the atmosphere that has never been measured, and they have predicted far more warming than has been measured. There’s also the fact that the temperature measurements have, without exception, been well within the range known to the historical record, notwithstanding false claims that they are “unprecedented”. Computer models can’t even predict the weather with much skill, so why do we think we can use them to predict climate, especially given the erroneous data inputted into them?

The only country that really has a large number of weather stations is the USA. Thermometers in the rest of the world, especially the Southern hemisphere are extremely sparse. In terms of a global temperature mean, we don’t actually have enough data to give a reliable number to the resolution of a single degree Celsius. The climate experts are relying largely on interpolation, using rather dubious methods that assume, for instance, that weather is consistent over several hundred miles in each direction from a weather station, which may or may not keep daily records. And yet we’re trying to measure temperature increases that amount to perhaps a tenth of a degree per decade!?

It also needs to be pointed out that CO2 in the atmosphere is entirely natural and not a pollutant at all. It’s actually very beneficial to plant growth, serious greenhouse growers deliberately add CO2 to the air the plants breathe so that they grow better! Far from starving to death due to CO2 “pollution”, we would see an increase in food production with increased CO2 levels.

Last but by no means least, there are the temperature and CO2 surrogate records going back 2-3 billion years proving that this planet has enjoyed a relatively stable, life-supporting climate for that entire time, varying in average global temperature in a very narrow range (approx 275-300 Kelvin, or about 8.3%), even when CO2 levels were as high as 7000 ppmv. That is very strong empirical evidence that the runaway catastrophic feedback mechanism assumed by all the IPCC models simply does not exist. The global climate obviously has built-in thermostatic controls that climate science has not yet discovered.

It’s easy to observe some of the mechanisms that might contribute to thermostatic control of the global temperature. Adding global heat by whatever means will produce additional evaporation of ocean water, which will evaporatively cool both the ocean and the air above the ocean. The resulting increase in clouds will increase the earth’s albedo which will also have a cooling effect. The additional water in the air will eventually precipitate out and irrigate the plants growing on the land, increasing their abundance. Increasing plant life will also have a cooling effect on the immediate environment through additional evaporation. So we can see how the climate system immediately responds to increases in temperature with cooling effects, maintaining a relatively stable average global temperature.

We need to plant trees.

SectionSB
SectionSB
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

I tend to disagree. You said “Computer models can’t even predict the weather with much skill, so why do we think we can use them to predict climate, especially given the erroneous data inputted into them?” and that to me pretty much negates your entire thesis. I’m a follower of Daniel Swains Weather West blog, from CA. We see and feel the changes here. I believe there are some signals out there that need to be watched closely, as this is a closed system. What to do about it? Complex answers. Carrying capacity may be overloaded. Pandemic will probably get us before GW does though.
I do think we should plant more trees.

Greebnurt Hurkurmurgurt
Greebnurt Hurkurmurgurt
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

I admire your balls to state your opinions here on Beachgrit where a lot of commenters would not agree with you and think your just a right wing fanatic and publicly bash you. There is so much conflicting information on this subject and it is almost impossible to know what is scientifically accurate and what is just opinion. Especially when a lot of scientists have their conclusions swayed by funding interests. A lot of your points I had never heard before, and they did make me think in ways I hadn’t considered before. But people have opinions, and I have always believed that different people have different opinions, and that’s a good thing. Some things you said I agreed with, and some I would have liked to know your sources for your statements, so I could employ my own critical thinking process better. But like I said before, I really don’t know what to think about this complex subject. But in short, it’s good to see somebody put their opinion out there and stand by it, even if it will ruffle the feathers of the majority.

grumpy local
grumpy local
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

I tend to agree. Not to get all conspiratorial but here they have us feeling guilty for driving our cars around while mega corporations gleefully pump out pollutants into the air, suck the earth dry of oil leaving untold destruction in their wake, mow down acre upon acre if natural habitat so that we can wipe our arses with 2 ply toilet paper… All seemingly without serious opposition. And what do we get? Well, we must pay more tax of course!

Return of the Samsung Board
Return of the Samsung Board
7 years ago
Reply to  Seas Nail

You’re a kiwi ay? I want to know who you are hahA, I remember the reef shoes photo

Eddie Haiku
Eddie Haiku
7 years ago

Wave strength going up
Surf industry going down
The science is clear!

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago

I can barely manage a nod most mornings, let alone a wave
Especially to hot earth lunatics
https://youtu.be/XvbAdK4l804

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago

C’mon Bexy Your willful ignorance about climate change and support of rightwing Aussie politicos is doing you a grave disservice.

Don’t make me post the rainbow cock again to cheer you up.

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

Look
If you own a lot of plastic shit and drive, then you obviously would prefer the earth to die than interrupt your convenience.
Yep, I know you ride a pushy but the commodore lurks, Dosent it?
https://youtu.be/hDzWTOaipQc

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago

I’m not denying my own personal contributions, but the real cynical cunts are the fat-cat billionaires pushing lies in the public agenda, propping up their own evil empires to the detriment of the entire human population, not to mention just about every other living creature on the planet.

Yes we have one family car; a Subaru Forester. Not the worst car by emissions standards.

None of us here now will know what happens, but future generations will certainly be cursing us for a long time. It is entirely possible to slow the effect down and stop it from being quite as bad as it could be, but the forces of greed are too strong right now to let anyone grab hold of the reins. It is not lunacy, just hard physical fact.

Right. I’ll stop now and go back to work.

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

Yeah like I hate those fuken native Indians and their campfires and peace pipes man, far out man I dance with wolves look at me! !
live breath to breath
Cough cough phglem dribbles

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago

Can’t blame it on sunshine!
Can’t blame it on moonlight,
Can’t blame it on good times.
Blame it on the irrefutable evidence for anthropogenic climate change caused by the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

James Bickerton
James Bickerton
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

CO2 , O2 are you listening …
What happened to the BOOGIE CB

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago

fuckin humans killed the last one years ago.

James Bickerton
James Bickerton
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

Cut down Boogie Wonderland and put up a ?

channelbottom
channelbottom
7 years ago

Proud Boys tiki-torch emporium

astro
astro
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

I read BG to learn.

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  astro

Where the fuk is Zealand?

astro
astro
7 years ago

I have written about this before.
Abel Tasman called the joint Neew Zeeland after his home province/state back in Holland.
It became somehow New Zealand after Cook. Prolly should’ve been New Sealand – which would be correct considering how many of the fucken things we’ve got. Another species in need of a cull …

Return of the Samsung Board
Return of the Samsung Board
7 years ago
Reply to  astro

Ha ha you surf in the South?

astro
astro
7 years ago

They’re fucken everywhere. Plague proportions.
N, S, E n W.
Time for a good old fashioned clubbing ….

Return of the Samsung Board
Return of the Samsung Board
7 years ago
Reply to  astro

I’ve been lucky both NE and NW then, most south I’ve been is Negatown, tEEming

Huli Opu
Huli Opu
7 years ago
Reply to  astro

Stoked to be back in Aotearoa next month with my Pakeha and Maori bruddahs dipping into some juicy Wainui sandbars.

astro
astro
7 years ago
Reply to  Huli Opu

Way to go !

Huli Opu
Huli Opu
7 years ago
Reply to  astro

Brah I’d go just for the fish and chips and a cold Tui.

ricmatic
ricmatic
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

smooth groove and informative!

Otto
Otto
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom
Wilbur
Wilbur
7 years ago
Reply to  Otto

You ever see the fat bastard that really sung that song? I’m guessing he doesn’t look as good in cut off lycra. https://uploads.disquscdn.c…

Instalo Feedeira
Instalo Feedeira
7 years ago
Reply to  Wilbur

Is that Notorious BIG?

Italo Post Heat Interview
Italo Post Heat Interview
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

Can’t argue with 0.5% increase in wave power! Crank it up!

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

These guys be the worst kinda limp biskit playing leftys,
But I love em anyways.
https://youtu.be/9cKcwwEZ9Kw

f u
f u
7 years ago

are you a right wing prick?

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  f u

No but my boyfriend is

f u
f u
7 years ago

thats what I guessed

Chief Hot stuff
Chief Hot stuff
7 years ago
Reply to  f u

I’d love to fuk him off but he’s got a huge cock!
Know what I’m sayin?
What’s a gal to do?
Yes, I demand to be addressed as a female.
Its my right Goddamit!

f u
f u
7 years ago

I don’t know. is 8 inches huge?
im not sure. the ladies like though.
we have no rights but those we fight for.

Old Kook
Old Kook
7 years ago

Thank God, I thought I was just getting weaker.

James Bickerton
James Bickerton
7 years ago

Oh Chas you are gullible. Borja G. Reguero ( what a name ! )of UCSC is possibly the latest reincarnation of Sasha Baron Cohen…….15% hi hi
Now had you quoted Dr. Pete Mel of Santa Cruz Big Wave Institute that would be another story .

Mild mannered civil servant
Mild mannered civil servant
7 years ago

It’s clear the oceans are evolving in response to the VAL and EI apocalypse… another 50 plus years and the balance of power will sit back with the oceans — VALs and EIs having been expunged once and for all.

Bleach'd Git
Bleach'd Git
7 years ago

For some reason your comment brought to mind shark culls and Backwards Fin Soup.

Mild mannered civil servant
Mild mannered civil servant
7 years ago
Reply to  Bleach'd Git

One sounds crunchy — like a soup full of resinous croutons — the other less desirable from an ecological perspective…

Wilbur
Wilbur
7 years ago

I read somewhere that soft tops reflect more energy from the sun, artificially cooling down the surface waters of some beaches.

Mild mannered civil servant
Mild mannered civil servant
7 years ago
Reply to  Wilbur

Sounds like a punishing PhD thesis. Is it because they tend to sit higher on the water than PU and Epoxy boards? I would’ve thought that that soft layer of foam would’ve absorbed more energy.

James Bickerton
James Bickerton
7 years ago

Soft Cell , Tainted Love ?

Mild mannered civil servant
Mild mannered civil servant
7 years ago

Riding soft tops is a sort of tainted love I guess — too much flex, rails that don’t really serve the purpose rails were made for, overall rather sludgey underfoot when tryingto get down the line and tempramental when finless — but oh so much fun at the same time.

James Bickerton
James Bickerton
7 years ago

50% of my French Mates own , operate or work in Surfschools or Surfshops , so I’ve had access to a plethora of these fun toys since the early 90s . Great fun on the days that one may have not bothered to go out on riding standard equipment , but every time I finally got a decent wave it was always “ Shit ! if only I’d rode my shortboard ! “ .

Mild mannered civil servant
Mild mannered civil servant
7 years ago

They’re my antidote for shit runs of swell and stale feelings. But you’re right — nothing worse than being confronted by a random 3 foot double-up while on a 4’6″ finless softy and feeling you’re wasting the wave.

Lemon Next to the Pie
Lemon Next to the Pie
7 years ago

Like riding a moped really.

Jimmy the Saint
Jimmy the Saint
7 years ago

Fuck Chas, don’t you diss West Africa and surfers from there, a certain Senegalese woman is going to clean up in Japan with her “Olympic Surf Coach”! And you know they have both been watching your every move. You are more likely to be in Forbes for “Racist Surf Tabloid….”

Chas Smith
Chas Smith
7 years ago

Hahahahaha!

david
david
7 years ago
Reply to  Chas Smith

I think you’re exaggerating there Chas..”Popular surf tabloid” ?

Wilbur
Wilbur
7 years ago

Just don’t tug her leash or you’ll face a public castration.

ricmatic
ricmatic
7 years ago

I like my earth flat and my mpg low.

Gino
Gino
7 years ago

Can ELO really consider himself the Rick Kane of 2019 if he hasn’t ridden a potato chip?

Karl Von Fanningstadt
Karl Von Fanningstadt
7 years ago

“The Southern Ocean (defined by the 40ºS latitudinal limit) is the most energetic basin and dominates the other oceans in terms of (wave power),”
Hey, instead of surfing shit river “waves,” maybe for the next “season” of Weird Waves, Dylan “Dirty Shit Out” Graves can go surf King Haakon Bay on South Georgia. He can also visit Shackleton’s burial and pretend like he’s heard of the guy. That would be fun… better than doing the same thing every episode*, anyway.
*lol talking like I’ve ever watched it

Wiggolly's Paddling Style
Wiggolly's Paddling Style
7 years ago

Shave him from head to toe and send him to Heard Island for 3 years to learn better grooming habits from the penguins.

Mads Naeraa
Mads Naeraa
7 years ago

Very promising-looking righthand point on Heard Island. Wait for an approaching cold front to turn winds NW, and bingo!
Water temp is a balmy 4C at the mo – certainly a lot warmer than Denmark, Sweden and New England surfers are used to in winter – and swell would never be in short supply.

Wiggolly's Paddling Style
Wiggolly's Paddling Style
7 years ago
Reply to  Mads Naeraa

Yeah hopefully global warming kicks in and they build a few casinos down there. Make it more appealing.

Otto
Otto
7 years ago

Yea!!! I love science! I just don’t understand it. Makes me feel like a genius when it comes to our silly endeavor of surfing. I understand surfing, I’m just woefully intermediate at it.


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