Kelly-Slater-Pipe-2016
Here's Kelly, winning the Volcom Pipe contest in 2016. | Photo: WSL/Cestari

Moneyball: How Kelly Can Requalify!

And why John John will win the title, according to the stats… 

Yesterday, the second-best red-haired surfer in the world, Dusty Payne, fiddled his way to first place at the Pipe Trials.

You can read about that miracle here, although the story will have you groping for tissues. Did you know, for example, the episode of Dusty and the stolen panties at LAX and… oh you have to read!

Inspiring!  

Today, another potential miracle is revealed.

How Kelly Slater, who is two months away from his forty-sixth-birthday (the same age as American president Johnny Kennedy when Oswald’s bullet rearranged his skull) could requalify for the 2018 tour and therefore keep the two injury wildcards, which will be announced the day after Pipe, for tour minnows.

What’s Kelly gotta do? Make the final. That’s it.

Miss half the season, appear dramatically on stage in the closing act, and liberate the last spot on tour. It ain’t a stretch. Kelly has won the event seven times, the first in 1992, three times in a row (94, 95 and 96) and, most recently, in 2013, aged forty-one.

But you come to Pipe to dump a crown on a world champ, yes?

And Balyn McDonald, whose website Surf-Stats has just launched its own version of Fantasy Surfer (click here for why they did it and why you should jump on in), explains who’s going to see sunlight at Pipe.

First John John v Gabe:

“The data consistently points to John. Sure, he hasn’t won the event yet, but he dominates almost every conditions stat that is relevant: lefts, reefs, all wave heights. He has a far greater average heat score (AHS) for the season than the rest of the tour, and his win rate of 75% is more than 5% above Medina. The only significant areas that put Medina above John are average place result, and recent form (Medina hasn’t lost a heat since Trestles).
Given that John only needs to make a few more heats to sew it up, the numbers definitely favour him.”

The outliers:

“Jordy and Julian are statistically fucked, but, hey, reality has a way of giving historical stats the finger so we will wait and see.”

Statistically fucked? I haven’t laughed this much since the neighbour’s child fell out of my fig tree!

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Cheyne Magnusson
Cheyne Magnusson
8 years ago

Dusty isn’t red-haired, he is half blood. Only true rangas are myself and mick campbell.

Lemon Next to the Pie
Lemon Next to the Pie
8 years ago

‘Statfu’ is what the kids say. Including the neighbours kid, as he fell from the tree.

Otto
Otto
8 years ago

Chas….Congratulations on finishing your book! Well done you weekend literary warrior!

GiGi
GiGi
8 years ago

Oswald????!!!! Oswald who, Dez???? U never saw Oliver Stone’s JFK???? Mr. X is yr answer to almost everything American … and Bell helicopter, of course….

Paulo De Tarso Duarte
Paulo De Tarso Duarte
8 years ago

Hahaha
No no no
The most powerfull J in the World
The…
…
…
….
Judges from WSL

Or… maybe he can call Vladmir to rig the judge’s computers

Otto
Otto
8 years ago

“powerfull J”….?

‘full’ Jew?
‘full’ Jerk?
‘full’ Jackass?
‘full’ Jack Haters?

channelbottom
channelbottom
8 years ago
Reply to  Otto

Jaccuzi jazzman jojoba juggler.

Ah no I’ve got it:
Jamiroquai!

Otto
Otto
8 years ago
Reply to  channelbottom

Did he have talent or not? I could never tell.

Paulo De Tarso Duarte
Paulo De Tarso Duarte
8 years ago

Jabba The Hutt!!!!

Miki Dora's bastard son
Miki Dora's bastard son
8 years ago

The bigger question is WHY?? WHY does a 46 year old 11 time world champ need to be on the tour in 2018?? He is not even competing against anyone from the same generation. WHY Kelly? What do you have to prove to anyone? WHY can’t you move on with your life? Marry your girlfriend,relax concentrate on all your business interests and face the fact you are a middle aged man and not fucking 25!!!!!! Your the best we’ve ever seen or will see. Don’t tarnish the competitive reputation you worked so hard for . Retire!!!!!!!!!!!

Kennypowersmullet
Kennypowersmullet
8 years ago

Why not?

Otto
Otto
8 years ago

To Kennypowersmullet,

Stop fucking up my game!
You need to step away from the party in the back! Seriously! Fuck! You can keep following the Venerable Saint Bede and squirt humble suds…..

OR YOU CAN BE A FUCKING MAN KENNY DO and say:

“Why pussy? Cause my dick was mad for pussy and my right arm was made for the mother fuckin’ show!… Baseball my bitches!

You all make shitty Disciples! Do you know that?!?! … Cause….Fuck….I hate you all!” ………..instead of “Why not?”

What the fuck do I know!

Mullets are hair follicle shouldered soldiers! Act the part dammit!

Sincerely pissed off,

Kenny Powers aka Fucking Rad aka Tribesman aka Fucking Nerd aka Not A Kook

Miki Dora's bastard son
Miki Dora's bastard son
8 years ago

He has zero chance of winning a world title. That’s why. He’s only doing it to try and win one more.

Kennypowersmullet
Kennypowersmullet
8 years ago

That or he just knows nothing else.. once he drops off there won’t be as much press chasing sYAaza

beachgrit
beachgrit
8 years ago

But if his leg are still agile and his joints as supple a tennis ball, why quit?

Burnsy
Burnsy
8 years ago

uh maybe because he likes to fucking surf Pipe with one other guy out? Don’t be such a fucking retarded cunt next time.

DrunkenAngel
DrunkenAngel
8 years ago
Reply to  Burnsy

Harsh. Very harsh.

Miki Dora's bastard son
Miki Dora's bastard son
8 years ago
Reply to  Burnsy

Burnsy. Tough guy behind the keyboard. We all know Kelly can’t win another. Get with the times and move on you hater cunt.

Eddie Haiku
Eddie Haiku
8 years ago

Says more about the skill level of the guys he’s keeping off tour.

Wayne Lunch
Wayne Lunch
8 years ago

I think he has a full grasp on the concept that 2018 may be the last season he’ll get to surf competitively in the ocean on the WSL. 2019 he’ll get married to Sophie.

Audit In Progress
Audit In Progress
8 years ago

Wait, who’s the best red-head?

ricmatic
ricmatic
8 years ago

If its not Carrot top, then Mick campbell for sure.

beachgrit
beachgrit
8 years ago
Reply to  ricmatic

Wrong! Mick was king of the strawberry blonds!

ricmatic
ricmatic
8 years ago
Reply to  beachgrit

Going out to buy red hair dye, I think I could actually make fourth on this list.

Brutus
Brutus
8 years ago
Reply to  beachgrit

ah but he was named the “Ginger Ninja,” has the temperament of a Ginger !
Kelly will surf next year , as its good business for the WSL , and the pool plan.
Kelly and the WSL are as one , and they need him , to set up the Pool Comps (PC’s) and also to spruik the new 2019Tour , as the WSL recently said that it would not need the surf brands $’s in the future and naming rights will go from $1m to $1.5m , plus PPV , the future never looked better!

Paulo De Tarso Duarte
Paulo De Tarso Duarte
8 years ago

Bobby Owens!

beachgrit
beachgrit
8 years ago

Give me your guess! It’s contentious! Dusty might even be number three!

Otto
Otto
8 years ago
Reply to  beachgrit

Still with us?

Ronnie Burns had fiery flare!

Audit In Progress
Audit In Progress
8 years ago
Reply to  beachgrit

Mark Healy? Fuck if I know.

Eddie Haiku
Eddie Haiku
8 years ago
Reply to  beachgrit

Could it be argued that Richie Collins was a ginger?

Otto
Otto
8 years ago
Reply to  Eddie Haiku

He had/has/whoknows the general disposition of a social outcast, but I don’t believe he’s worthy.
However, other than Al Gore-ish, who else can claim a strong world wide web game in the late 80’s early 90’s?

Eddie Haiku
Eddie Haiku
8 years ago
Reply to  Otto

Glen Winton, that’s who!

Klein Zack
Klein Zack
8 years ago

Alana Blanchard?

janeausten
janeausten
8 years ago

Bede?

turts
turts
8 years ago

Jordy is the sad saffa version of Taj. He will never win a title.
Julian is better looking (if possible) Bondi version of Taj. He will also never win a title.

stewie
stewie
8 years ago
Reply to  turts

by that logic I’m a Taj too!

DrunkenAngel
DrunkenAngel
8 years ago
Reply to  turts

If he did win guinea pig sales would go through the roof in SA

Lemon Next to the Pie
Lemon Next to the Pie
8 years ago
Reply to  turts

You take that back. Julian can’t even entertain the thought of living on the Gold Coast with all the cool(y) kids. He’s more of the St. Bede style, despite his glamourous shell.

Paulo De Tarso Duarte
Paulo De Tarso Duarte
8 years ago

How can Bald Guy bla bla bla?
Simple…
The J factor!…


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