How to Moneyball the Hurley Pro at Lowers.
Statistics are cold. There ain’t no heart beating. No soul.
But their impersonal rationale often trumps the emotional decisions we make, particularly when it comes to sport. Balyn Macdonald is a thirty-something primary school teacher whose website surf-stats.com reveals the effectiveness of statistics and how it applies to professional surfing.
Just before the first school bell rang to signal the imprisonment of children for the day, Balyn delivered a compelling raft of stats and how he sees the game playing out next week when a little swell will creak into Trestles and kickstart event number eight.
Here’s how he sees it playing out.
First, “It’s Filipe and Mick all day,” he says. Mick has the best average heat scores in one-to-four-foot waves and the second best in point breaks (which is what Lowers is considered to be). Filipe’s average heat score at Lowers is a full point above anyone else and he’s second, to Mick, in one-to-four-foot waves.
Jordy has won it the last two times he competed. He missed 2015 ’cause of injury but won in 2014 and 2016. “Jordy is killing it. He’s light years above everyone else in win percentages and average placings.” Interestingly, his heat scores ain’t the greatest and in one-to-four-foot waves he comes in eleventh. How big’s the surf going to be? Two foot? Yeah.
Bal’s Fantasy Surfer team for Trestles based solely on the numbers: Mick Fanning, Gabriel Medina, John John, Filipe Toledo, Joan Duru (crazy stats in left and right peaks), Fred Morais, Italo Ferreira, Hiroto Ohhara and Zeke Lau as the alternate.
This’ll be the first WCT Trestles event Kelly Slater has missed.
John John? He ranks sixth in small waves. Fifth in peaks. And eighth at this event. Still, Bal likes his form. “Even when he’s not winning, John is scoring well. His average heat score for the season is still well out in front, and his ‘poor run’ for the past two events has consisted of two fifths. John is still in the driver’s seat for a back-to-back title, but he’ll have to convert those big scores into another big result soon.”
Don’t jump on Seb Zietz. He’s won only one heat in four years.
Wilko ain’t so hot here either.
He’s never made it out of round three. “They’re fighting history,” says Bal.
Porta was never a fan of his stats class though
Jordy. He’s been the WSL poster boy from the start of the season. Not even low scores are gonna stop him.
In a “sport” that is subjective then stats don’t mean shit at all!!
In all reality the judges could read your little analysis, then slightly skew it any way they want
Anyone who gambles on surfing contests might as well be gambling on boxing!
Stu Kennedy is going to choke.
Statistics have never been a crystal ball. They can only tell the tale of what has already happened.
Perfectly described!
Looks like fuckin Stab found a mole in the WSL meeting.
“Whilst surfing a heat, competitors must compose a pithy haiku about corporate responsibility to shareholders and the environment. Once the heat finishes they must run to the judging tower and recite their poem to fulfill the middle 30% of their score. Points will be awarded for creativity.
The last 30% will be decided on a combination of baking skills and 2-stroke engine repair dexterity.
When asked about the remaining 10% of the score, the top-ranked WSL official merely said “Aaaaah….” and tapped the side of his nose while winking sagely.”
I mean… you couldn’t make this stuff up.
Sincerely, this is the greatest comment I’ve ever read.
true purple patch
It’s like the WSL is specifically trying to get me to watch!
Duru and Morais in 2 foot Lowers? don’t care what your fancy stats tell ya with those picks.
They say it can’t be done until somebody goes and does it.
Wilko taking the first two last year? Keanu Asing beating Gabe in France?
At least Duru and Morais won’t cost you too much…
well shit, Igarashi at Pipe if we want to get crazy, but think about those conditions. Asing would be a good call for this week. maybe Conner McShortstuff.
Given that the playing field is constantly changing, surfing is more black swan than moneyball. Wilson beating Medina at Chopes? Medina beating Slater after that semi with JJF all those years ago?
Yet, I’d be pretty interested to see what this guy would do with Slater’s wave after a couple of years of data.
We see what we want to see in stats, particularly when used for prediction. If you want to make a statistical case for any surfer or presidential candidate, you can always find the numbers somewhere.
Our stats teams never top the fantasy rankings; they can’t factor in the smaller details that contribute to success. They have ‘no soul’, as Derek so sveltely put it.
We always put plenty of caveats amongst our data, as we’re more aware than most of the limitations they contain. We suggest you always pick with your instincts, but maybe check the stats to make sure your ‘gut’ isn’t screwing you over.
Hey, wow! Thanks for the reply. Using them as a check on “gut” decisions is good advice, and I can see you actually recommend that on your site.
I’m curious if you have settled on a particular “stat” that cuts through the chatter, like on base percentage.
Is Slater’s wave going to make your job easier?
Have you determined if things like a high average heat score actually do predict winners?