Fantasy Surfer winner and former WCT surfer Blake Thornton and his hot tips for Hossegor!
Do you remember our pledge last month to turn five c-notes into many thousands of dollars via surf gambling in the back half of the WCT season? With a modest $500 deposit and the advice of former WCT surfer and 2015 Fantasy Surfer champion Blake Thornton, BeachGrit planned to beat hell out of Australia’s betting agencies. To drink from their brackish water and emerge not destitute but triumphant; our jackboot upon their necks and not, as is usually the case, the other way around.
The gambling angle appeals because: All the odds for WCT events are set by non-surfers using statistics and nothing else. There is no insider trading, no quarter given to the surf forecast, no nod to a surfer’s affinity with a particular wave.
It screams advantage. It’s why I ain’t never going near the dang horses.
We started modest enough at the Surf Ranch Pro, slow because without the usual heat format opportunities were limited. One hundred and fifty dollars wagered for a two hundred and fifty win. (Gabriel, fifty bucks at five to one.)
In Hossegor, with two hundred dollars to bet?
According to Thornton, and given the forecast of middling three-foot lefts, you gotta throw skin on Gabriel and Filipe. “The two in-form surfers from the Ranch and with the forecast looking the way it does you would expect ’em to be semis or better again in this event. Not rocket science, I know.”
Who else? Thornton says if he had to look elsewhere, Julian or Kolohe could fire up. “Julian has the full package and Kolohe is generally strong in Europe.”
How can someone beat Gabriel or Filipe? What sorta strategies must they employ?
“A surfer has to do what what they do well. eg. If it’s a four-foot rip-bowl left and Willy Cardoso is on point with his backhand cracks then that formula could put these guys to the sword. Surfers try and overdo it against Gabriel and Filipe and feel they have to go above and beyond to win. However with this year’s judging they can be beaten if crew stick to their strengths and just do it well.”
Dark horses? “My dark horses are based off what I think these guys will be surfing so I am looking at strong surfers in lefts at three-to-five foot who aren’t the regulars. Connor O’Leary grew up in left rip bowls and has all the tools. Michael Rodrigues, he has a fast backhand and hasn’t really clicked yet and the beachbreaks could suit him. Adriano has had a crummy year by his standards and has a crisp backhand attack. Plus he generally rises to the occasion against Medina and Toledo.”
Our wagers.
To win, $50 on Medina, $40 on Toledo, $30 on Julian, $20 on Kolohe $20 on Adriano, $20 on Connor O’Leary.
The smart gambler knows the multi-bet, picking multiple heat winners, is where the cash lies.
Round one?
A twenty on Adriano into Kolohe into Willy. That kinda swing could earn around fifteen to one or that twenty turns into three hundred.
And an editor’s note: BeachGrit isn’t affiliated with any betting agency. Oh we tried. Of course we tried. Anything to generate a little passive income, even if the money came red with spilled blood. (The deal is, affiliates get a cut of a gambling man’s losses.) Anyway, didn’t exactly fire so here we are. Putting our bread where our mouths are, as they say.
Multi Bet on sportsbet
Joel ParkinsonJoel Parkinson Round 1 Heat 12 $3.00
Mikey Wright Round 1 Heat 11 $2.25
Michel Bourez Round 1 Heat 102.25
Patrick Gudauskas Round 1 Heat 94.00
Adrian Buchan Round 1 Heat 82.50
Wade Carmichael Round 1 Heat 72.25
Connor O’Leary Round 1 Heat 64.00
Frederico Morais Round 1 Heat 44.20
Gabriel Medina Round 1 Heat 51.36
Keanu Asing Round 1 Heat 34.00
Sebastian Zietz Round 1 Heat 22.70
Jordy Smith Round 1 Heat 11.67
1.67
odds 140817.69
$1000.00 bet
Est. Returns$140817693.24
with those kind of returns, the whole CT could throw one heat each and sit back and retire on more than they make in a lifetime, dear dirk its all built on sand…
I know absolutely nothing about gambling and AM staying the hell away.
Not from any moral imperatives, merely an honest acknowledgement of my ignorance.
But good luck to you all.
Gabriel was FIVE TO ONE in the pool?? Are they mad? Christ, I gotta think about this gambling lurk.
‘There is no insider trading, no quarter given to the surf forecast, no nod to a surfer’s affinity with a particular wave.’
agree, but in an illiquid (anti-pun not intended) sport such as surfing, they set their markets to 140+% so good luck with long term profit making in that sort of set-up
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Can I have a dollar for the bus?
Just emailed! Goddamn!
Blake Thornton knows dick all that the casual punter couldn’t tell you.
And you’re never getting the value/risk balance right when you’re staking so much on the nose.
Man. Amateur hour.
Heat by heat the same as red or black on the roulette wheel.
50% chance of winning are odds I prefer.
When it’s not pumping bet on the roughy every heat for a round. When pumping say classic Jbay, always the favourite unless the fav wins 5 or 6 times in a row. Won some good coin on this.
Don’t see the Shark sighting or Bacteria clause?
These days fucken anything goes.
I put 15 dollars on Joan Duru. He is due for a big result.
That theory hasn’t really work for Kolohe.
I am completely aware at how stupid my theory is. It’s all a crap shoot, heck the bloody Kung Fu Panda has won this year.
and France can dish up surprise results. it seems like only yesterday that Asing got up.
Truth! But don’t remind me.
Cmon! The little guy has some heart. Fucking Cardoso is the travesty in the ranks of “athletes” who found a win. Amazing that guy will fall off tour forever next year with more WCT victories than Josh Kerr….. Its a mad mad world out there.
smokey!