"Betting on surfing depends on Renato Hickel and a judging panel who have proven, time and time again, that the Sport of Kings is impossible to judge consistently."
I am not a gambling man, when it comes to coin. With matters of head or heart, I’ll roll that metaphorical dice all day and all night long, but rolling actual dice for money bums me out. I either kick myself for not betting more, with a win, or kick myself for betting at all, with a loss.
No, I am not a gambling man, but I am playing Surfival League and still in contention even with a historical early season culling, which saw over 60% of the field decimated within the first three events. I picked Griffin Colapinto for Bells and made it through. I picked Ethan Ewing for Margaret and made it through. I picked Italo Ferreira for the Gold Coast Pro.
Thus, yesterday afternoon, I tuned in to the broadcast worried. The wind ruffling Snapper looked too much. The current seemed lame. The vibe was not right. And yet World Surf League Deputy Commissioner Renato Hickel called it on, Italo paddled into trash and just snuck through by the goatee hairs on his chinny, chin, chin.
Whew.
I stuck around for the next heat, which featured Ethan Ewing. 19% of the remaining Surfivalists had placed their wagers on the handsome Australian with fine buttocks and a loss by him would put me in a fine position. The plucky Indonesian, Rio Waida, very much had him on the ropes until the dying minutes when Ewing swung on a decent one and was awarded an 8-something. He also just snuck through by the goatee hairs on Italo’s chinny, chin, chin.
And I sat there, in the ballet studio lobby, wondering if there is any stupider sport to bet on in the whole world than surfing.
Sending two surfers out in trash at the whim of a Deputy Commissioner is stupid.
Giving a surfer an 8-something instead of a 7-something is stupid (and the judges’ 8-something to Ewing very stupid).
Any sort of advantage regarding an educated guess tossed right out the Bonsoy Brew Break but isn’t the whole point of sport betting centered around educated guesses? Inside information? Homework done? Knowing that the center has an oblique strain? That Miss Sugar Plum runs better on grass and will close well if on the inside lane? That Fernando Tatis loves to hit breaking balls and the other team’s starting pitcher throws majority curves?
Betting on surfing depends on Renato Hickel and a judging panel who have proven, time and time again, that the Sport of Kings is impossible to judge consistently.
Tell me a stupider sport on which to gamble.
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I’ve bet on surfing 5 times and won 4 outta 5. You gotta know when to hold em. Know when to fold em. Know when to walk away. And know when to fun.
The reason surfing is a good choice to bet on is because the oddsmakers aren’t expert in surfing. They don’t follow surfing, and so are making statistical and conventional lowest common denominator choices when setting lines. After lines are set, they don’t keep up well on new info and don’t reset accordingly.
So if you understand professional surfing and follow closely, you have a marginal advantage compared to most other sports.
Not saying it’s a sure thing, but definitely a better choice than football or basketball for instance.
That was once the case. Not now. Too much data, everything moves quick, odds dialled back and max bets shrunk.
Books are winning, even at surfing.
Every time you see a heat where the scores the WSL judges hand out just don’t make any sense, I would bet a HamSammish that betting on surfing had something to do with it.
I’ll tell you what, if someone didn’t make serious cash over the past few years in the non-elimination structure I’d be shocked.
Couldn’t design a sport easier to rig where everyone still wins.
Why’s that bad news?
You gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold them…
The only thing dumber than gambling in the first place is forgetting to max your bet…
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If strayan cunt isn’t back at the contest site drinking beer at noon again today, he’ll lose all credibility as a true Aussie.
stRaygun Cosplayer. Harped on yesterday about being on the nose beers, rooting Brazilians, causing chaos with WSL surfers & staff, rub & tugs after the event and being so pissed he could hardly walk.
Yet spent the whole day on his phone in the live chat. Weird.
Hope he’s right about the conditions getting better today. Going to buy a few beers myself and watch.
Going to be good for sure. Those earlier heats yesterday were a bit of a grind. As soon as the tide dropped and it got bigger the surfing went from 3rd gear to 5th. Feels like the year is going to start today.