It's gonna be a good week!
As previously
stated, I think it’s wonderful that the women will
finish their side of the OK Fiji Pro at pumping Cloudbreak. That
said, I ain’t exactly upset that the guys are the ones scoring this
year.
The forecast for the men’s event is strong. The first three days
offer up well-overhead surf and, after a slight break, more waves
look to be marching up the Aussie-NZed chute. If I were to guess,
the comp will likely run up to the quarters during the first round
of swell and finish with the secondary pulse.
Selecting a team for Cloudbreak is more science than sentiment.
Experience pays dividends at a wave of this caliber, especially
with swell on tap. So, here are my picks:
John John Florence: 11.75 mil
John fell out early in Brazil, which hurt my team but helped in a
number of other ways. For one, it opened up the world title race.
Two, it gave a Yago a chance to shine (and Yowza!). Three, he’s now
three-quarters of a mil cheaper, which will help throughout the
rest of season (if you hold onto him).
John’s never had a CT win in barreling reef-break conditions — a
stat that is bound to change sometime in the near future.
Talent-wise, the only people that can touch John at Cloudy are
Kelly and Gab, but as we know, it takes a lot more than talent to
win an event nowadays. He’ll have to fight through the Ace Buchans
and Jadson Andres (two wildly capable tube riders) if he wants
to earn the taste of Fijian victory (a double-skulldragger).
Gabriel Medina: 10 mil
In the past three years, Gab has been the world’s best Cloudbreak
surfer. Aside from his two victories, he’s pushed the boundaries of
progression in sizeable, shallow surf. His barrel-to-oop last year,
a head-scratching
6.97, was something from a different era. A future
era.
Budget-wise, I had to choose between Owen and Gab. While Owen
has had an exceptional year to this point, and has a striking
record in waves of this sort, my gut tells me to stick with
GQ.
Kelly Slater: 7.5
With waves on the horizon, it’d be foolish to look past Slater. If
there’s one thing in this world that can save him from faulty
boards and a bad back, it’s pumping Cloudy. Kelly may not win the
whole thing, but if he does, would you really want to be the idiot
who sat him out? This is his event, in more ways than one.
Ace Buchan: 6.25 mil
It’s a shame Ace did so well in Brazil, not because I dislike the
guy, but because that second-place finish upped his Fantasy price
significantly. When Kai Otton was on Tour, every year I
would pick both he and Ace at Cloudy and Chopes, and to
memory, those purchases often paid dividends. Hopefully Ace will
keep his foot on the accelerator, or rather, the front-third of
that shimmering JS. The man’s got giddy-up.
Mick Fanning: 4.5 mil
I’m not sure what Mick’s real price is, as I’ve had him since
Snapper and will hold onto him through Pipe, but at 4.5 mil he’s a
steal out at Cloudy. Evidence suggests that left tubes may be a
weakness in Mick’s game, but if you watched the 2016 event you know
he’s more than capable of nabbing nines and tens when the
conditions are right. Even when it’s smaller, well, let’s just say
his backside snap is nothing to sneeze at.
Jeremy Flores: 4.25
Jer’s got all the passion in the world and his surfing has never
looked so fine! If it’s on, and it looks like it will be, Jeremy is
one of the best backhand tube riders in the world. He’s also not
afraid of anyone on the CT, nor anything the ocean can throw at
him. Do you remember the wave he almost made at Teahupo’o during
the Code Red year? Jeebus.
Italo Ferreira: 4
I can’t tell you how happy I am to see The Italian Ferrari back on
Tour. With a healed ankle and renewed sense of motivation
(nobody wants to rely on the injury WC for requal’), I can’t see
Italo falling out before Round five. Fiji is his favorite
place in the world, and the kid is shockingly good in forehand
tubes. Do you remember, in his rookie season, when Italo smashed
Slater at eight-foot Cloudy? Kelly remembers.
Nat Young: 1.5 mil
It’s tough to pick between Nat and Yago here. My heart says Yago,
but my mind looks to seeding (Nat is number 30, Yago, 35) and
history (Nat is a former finalist, while I don’t believe Yago has
surfed in Fiji before).
While I like Yago’s first round one heat against Jordy and
Kanoa, the idea that he might be paddling out to his first session
at sizeable Cloudbreak in a jersey is too risky for me. You can’t
just show up to that wave and get two good waves in your first
thirty minutes… I think.
Nat gets the nod.