Safety surfing so dull it will break the World Surf League!
I am a very big baseball fan. I love everything about America’s pastime and especially in America’s finest city. The smell of freshly cut grass, hot dogs, the way the sun sets over Petco Park, spiked root beer, the crack of the bat, the languid pace which allows for mindless conversations etc. It is a beautiful game with a beautiful history which, for the past few decades, has pitted traditionalists against statisticians.
You may have watched the film Moneyball. It followed the Oakland As general manager Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) as he infused statistics into his decision making process. A walk, for example, is praised. A steal is not valuable. Making consistent contact beats swinging for the fences. On and on. Players are encouraged to do the statistically correct thing at the statistically correct time instead of going with their gut. Scouts, out observing the next generation of players, are devalued as statistics will tell managers, general managers and owners everything they need to know.
There have been a backlashes to what is called sabermetrics with recently retired player Jayson Werth saying, for example, “They’ve got all these super nerds, as I call them, in the front office that know nothing about baseball but they like to project numbers and project players.”
Super nerds indeed but I do wonder if the super nerd principles were applied to surfing could a middle of the pack pro win a title?
I would imagine there are statistics on which moves done when score the highest. Like, if you catch three waves within the first ten minutes, no matter how bad those waves are, and do three little jams and two little squirts you are guaranteed a 12.4 heat total. Or, like, if it is big and barreling forego the biggest set wave as the statistical chance of failure increases and instead aim for the second wave in each set.
Super nerds could parse everything and create computer programs that would ensure heat wins. Safety surfing to the extreme and terribly dull but I do wonder if, say, Ace Buchan was to employ a team of super nerds and surf exactly how they told him to surf, based on waves and competition, catching the exact waves, doing the exact moves, if he could easily win a world title.
What do you think?
Sabermetrics shmabermetrics, manalytics is the future https://twitter.com/barstoo…
Just a few questions, so if you can try and refrain on the quippy rhetoric.. or not
Can we crowd fund a alternative to the current shit show we are forced to consume day in and day out?
Can we give our kids something that’s fuelling their creativity in the water instead of belting the fuck out of it with the ” Is it corporately viable?” Stick…
Watch the ever growing Vans Park Series to watch skaters from every corner of the globe go nuts for a fucked up trick regardless of where they’re from, sure there’s competitiveness but fuck it’s good to watch..and i aint no skater.
There’s enough talented individuals to pull off a webcast anywhere in the world sitting around with no work, there’s more than enough surfing talent not on tour and do not care to be, and there’s more than enough people/fans waiting for an alternative. Why are the Stapleberg’s of the world required other than to fluff the plumes of the latest prince in power? Why do we sit on our hands and surrender to the force fed swill year after year?
What does the average 12 year old kid think of the Tahiti webcast?…nothing he’s not watching because he’s re watching Noah Deane’s latest clip with his mates in maths class…
Is it as easy as –
Online vote to who we want to watch and where we want to watch?
Gland/Namibia/Macaronis/Gnarloo
Lances/Safi/South Straddie/Soupbowls/Mexico
Penalties for safe surfing
can it be done?
please..
You’re conflating team sports with individual. Seemingly less dominant surfers have won world titles through consistency and ironing out weaknesses over time, but it’s because that approach suited who they were as individuals. They pursued it with as much of themselves as did the brilliant ones who’ve won on the fly and the gnarly ones who’ve won in the clutch. Tellingly, most have been unable to do the same thing twice, and only a handful have managed it three times or more. The key to individual sporting success, in surfing or anything else, is development of the individual.
Also: sabermetrics were substantially exposed over several seasons post-Moneyball as being no more or less reliable as a predictor of team success than any others. It’s no magic bullet that’s for sure.
There’s gold in that first paragraph, Nick.
Might we be confusing WSL’s future trajectory for being celebration of the individual rather than foundation for building regional teams?
Pros seem in a funk this year. Perhaps that’s WSL breaking it down before they build it up.
I didn’t read the article.
Something to do with Sabre Norris?
I think there could be something in how many waves caught in a heat equals success, but overall sabermetrics wouldn’t work in surfing because nature provides too much of a variable. Nature (with the exception of a rained out game) has no effect on baseball. It’s outdoors but its a controlled environment.
I fucking love baseball too. For everything you mentioned. I think baseball makes a resurgence among the major sports as NFL starts to lose it’s audience due to head trauma, neglected retirees and anthem kneeling.
Nick Carroll wrote something recently – or maybe he said it in that Lipped podcast – about how many champions look back on their championship and think that luck played quite a part. It’s got me thinking maybe Taj not taking a title, or Julian’s or Jordy’s current title count doesn’t reflect on their character as much as their luck!
I don’t think world titles should be seen as a measure of character, it’s more about skills applied over time. Character may arise from that or may not. And luck in sport or anything is a transient thing — it comes and goes, and tends to come out “in the wash” so to speak. It’s a rare surfer, a rare anyone, who could claim an entire career on the basis of luck, good or bad– and if they do, I would instantly doubt their judgement.
I thought Rickey Bassett was a little unlucky in his title year!
Ricky Bobby is a champion in my eyes!
I consider my career very heavily luck based.
Most of it bad.
Nice image of Ziff.
In Surfing you are the team. Adriano de Souza and Damien Hardman are a couple of working class heroes who seemed to grasp the Jack of all trades concept in an effort to win the big prize. Slater is what happens when you add sabermetrics to freak level talent in an individualistic sport. Slater laughs his ass off when asked about being coached. “Why would I have someone less skilled than me telling me what to do in a heat”…
holy shit chas, judging by that picture you may have enjoyed your Denmark trip a little too much. don’t you know that smoking is bad for your health.
Did he go to Denmark or did he eat it ?
that or the wheels really fell of his “cocaine and surfing” book tour and it morphed into a “chicken and durries” tour.
Statistics means never having to say you’re certain.
That Sir Tain is ever the evasive character, statistically speaking of course ?
You could be on to something, Chas.
If some nerd went back and analysed ADS’s heats from his World Title year I think your theory would be proven to be true.
great parallel. both dying sports that the youth aren’t into.
I can’t wait for Pottz and Turdpel to reference every surfer’s “Squirt Exit Velocity.”
T: Two jams, three downcarves, three squirts, and two end bonks gets him a 14.07 heat total. One point added for his first name being “Julian” bumps his score up to 15.07. What a display by the savvy vet. Your thoughts, ’89 World Champ, Martin Potter?
P: Solid strategy and performance from the man. Remember, he’s a freak. His squirt exit velocity averaged 29.3 mph last year… the most radical bottom turn on THE PLANET.
T: Silky smooth. He’s adapted to being a poppa. Squirting ferociously, whenever, wherever, we’re meant to be together!
P: You’re exactly right, Joe….
On a related note, just saw an ad on a train for “Squirt” a new online dating app, featuring ab-baring dudes in leather undies.
If it’s got speed, power and flow, I’m all ears.
FRAUD! Saber nerds LIKE swinging for the fences, do not care about high batting averages. Which is kinda killing baseball.
You need Indian Cricket Betting Money to spice up the old game .
Oh oops. That’s what I meant…..
One could do the inverse . Surf within oneself but intelligently give the impression of falling off on one turn each wave , recover while hidden in the whitewash ,then ride out to the adoration of the fans ,who love you for your bit part in a popular TV series , and turn a 5 into a 7 . No……… it will never work , but it might make your hair fall out ?
Harsh!
The white wash recovery scam doesn’t seem to work though as you’ll recall Kelly’s backside rotation at Lowers a few years ago failed to score.
The judges started awarding those smashing walls ? Make recoveries great again ? Just having some fun and have the utmost respect for Mr Slater’s surfing and showmanship .