Surfing, writes Scottish punter, is a gambler's dream…
I’d like to preface this (and anything else I may write about gambling in the future) with the following statement:
Gambling is as foolish a pursuit as a man can have. It’s the worst of the vices.
Despite what I write here, I am deeply embarrassed by my gambling habits. They are hidden from the world. I surreptitiously stab at my phone in dim corners of day-to-day life. I share none of it, except, ironically, with a bunch of strangers on a men’s special interest blog (plus two women).
Despite what I write here, I am deeply embarrassed by my gambling habits. They are hidden from the world. I surreptitiously stab at my phone in dim corners of day-to-day life. I share none of it, except, ironically, with a bunch of strangers on a men’s special interest blog (plus two women).I suppose it’s cathartic for me. But, honestly, you’ve probably got more chance of getting rich peddling witch’s tears than you do trying to beat the bookies.
Unless, of course, you’re betting on surfing. Then none of that is true.
Because there are still bets to be had on surfing that make you feel almost guilty for taking the cash. You can finally pat yourself on the back for using knowledge gleaned from years of dedication to this dull excuse for sport, and for surviving the oral equivalent of waterboarding delivered by Potz and Turpel. #metoo
Surfing is a gambler’s bloody dream, mate. As is France. France can, as Jay Z might say, unwrap the gift and the curse in one session.
Traditionally, the thing that takes gamblers down is when they start betting on feel. When they get convinced they know what’s going to happen without logic or evidence. This is what real gamblers do. And by that I mean the ones who mostly lose money, most of whom will ultimately lose all their money. I’m ultimately, mostly and unfortunately one of those guys. I can walk away from a poker game apathetic about winning money; or I can walk away happy having lost it all if I’ve had just a single hand where I’ve been all in and won on the river. That heave is all I need.
Of course, this is not what professionals do. Pros never bet on feel. Instead, they bet on numbers, and probabilities, and rational things. Surfing ain’t none of them things. Surfing is about feel, and so is gambling on it. Forget the stats. Surf stats and all that bullshit. Look at them, sure. It’s a consideration, but ignore them generally. And don’t make ANY decisions based on numbers alone. You can and should break the rules when betting on surfing. In continuation of the rap parlance: bet on the guy who is feeling himself.
Take today. Ryan Callinan is feeling himself. He’s just won a massive QS, he’s qualified to surf with the big boys next year, and he’s coming out the other side of a period of personal tragedy as bad as it gets. No wonder he’s surging. At 5/1 to beat Filipe today in a heat with only two possible outcomes it was a gift. Add in the pressure on Filipe, and the fact that he’s choked in the past and it wasn’t difficult to lay down some cash on Callinan. And of course it makes you feel good to back him. You want him to win. He’s a feel-good story. And judges of a subjective and emotional sport are susceptible to feel good stories, just as you are. No conspiracy, just chemistry.
My bets for today (all accumulators, all round three):
A 7 fold on: Cardoso to beat O’Leary (won); De Souza over Buchan (won); Callinan over Toledo (won); Medina to beat Wiggolly (won); Zeke to beat MRod (to run); Griff over C-Bass (to run); Duru over Julian (to run). (276/1)
A 6 fold of the same bet minus Callinan. (45/1)
A 5 fold of Cardoso, De Souza, Callinan, Zeke and Griff. (81/1)
I might do some cashing out overnight before it kicks off again in the morning, but I probably won’t.
Laid back… with my mind on my money and my money on my mind
(Notes: Jamie gambles with Bet365, with “a modest twenty pounds sterling on each of those multis. I might cash some of it out tonight. Not convinced by Zeke over M-Rod. On France so far I haven’t won anything. I had a few minor pre0-event bets scuppered by Caroline Marks losing to the wild card. She was one of my bankers for nearly every line. And it’s been a slow one with the lay days etc anyway so I haven’t been that on top of it. I don’t tend to bet on outright winners, I only bet round one for fun, and I avoid round two because the odds are generally not worthwhile. Round three on is where it gets more tempting.”)