“Overscored, metronomic” Olympic gold medallist Caroline Marks hot favourite to win surfing world title!

"The judges are a fickle bunch. What they love today, they may not score at all tomorrow. Get it while you can, girl."

If Surfline is to be believed, and why wouldn’t be we believe Surfline, the Lexus WSL Finals will take place on Friday, the first day of the event waiting period. Get in there and get it done. Surfline’s forecast claims surf in the shoulder-to-head-high range. Your guess is as good as mine as to what that will actually mean on the day.

Smaller, probably.

Caity Simmers sits on top of the world as the rankings leader, but she’ll face a tough challenge from 2023 world champion and Olympic gold medalist Caroline Marks. In fact, it’s hard not to see Caroline as the favorite here, especially after she scored an upset victory last year over Carissa Moore. Caity dazzles, but Caroline rarely misses a beat.

I will try to be on the beach there at Trestles, if I can find my way to that joint. Ah yes, the 405, we meet again. There’s a heat wave on the forecast for Friday, so I might just spend the day in the ocean. Surf contest? What surf contest? Certainly, I will bring a bikini. And snacks. Snacks are very important. See you there, maybe?

In the meantime, here’s a preview.

Caity Simmers

In her first two seasons on Tour, Caity has matched a young Carissa’s dizzying trajectory. Last year, Caity finished the regular season ranked fifth and this year, enters Trestles as world number one. Along the way to the top of the rankings, Caity won three events this year, including Pipe. While an Olympic medal eluded her, it’s hard to see how Caity could have improved on her season. Sure, she still has things to work on. Every surfer does. But she’s put in a dominant performance this year, no question.

Can Caity win the one-day grand slam-o-rama? Maybe. Trestles is obviously plenty familiar to her. When she surfs her best, Caity is stylish, jazzy, and dynamic. But she still makes mistakes that crafty veterans like Caroline or Tati could exploit. Sometimes, Caity can’t quite put her ideas into play and her surfing can look rough around the edges. Of course, that’s what makes her interesting.

Real talk: Caity will have a hard time beating Caroline, whose smooth approach the judges will certainly reward. But, I’m pretty sure the surfer we all want to watch is Caity. We never really know what Caity is going to do next, and there’s magic in that.

As a bonus, here’s Caity’s pre-event press release quote. “It’s pretty not real, but it’s also super real,” Simmers said. “It’s pretty cool. Lowers is a super fun wave, and it’s kind of a ridiculous life situation to be in, so I’ll just try to not think about it at all.”

Right. Just don’t think about it.

Caroline Marks

In 2023, Caroline started Finals Day ranked third. She finished the day as world champion. When she’s not traveling, Caroline lives in San Clemente and the hours she’s spent at Trestles give her a nice advantage. This season, she won Surf City El Salvador Pro and an Olympic gold medal. Caroline’s not at home in bigger surf, but that won’t matter at Trestles. Her current ranking reflects a steady accumulation of points. While Caroline wasn’t necessarily a stand-out this season, she made the important heats and punched her ticket.

Despite her ranking, Caroline comes to Trestles as the favorite to repeat as world champion. The judges love her near-metronomic backhand and the flow that allows her to pack in the turns, one after another. Is she overscored at times? Sure, she is. And as any number of surfers have discovered over the years, the judges are a fickle bunch. What they love today, they may not score at all tomorrow. Get it while you can, girl. Caroline’s superpower is that she rarely makes mistakes — and that will make her very hard for Caity to beat.

Brisa Hennessey

The comeback queen, Brisa missed the cut in 2023, but has turned her career straight around. Her stand-out result this year came at the Shiseido Tahiti Pro, where she wrangled solid Tahiti on her backhand. Local favorite Vahine Fierro beat her in the final, but I confess, I did not have Brisa even making the final at Teahupo’o on my bingo card. Good on her. I like surprises.

Ranked third ahead of Trestles, Brisa built her comeback on the strength of consistency. She made four semifinals this year, and she’s managed to convince the judges to give her the nod in several close heats. That’s not an easy trick. She’s also managed to turn the often small and inconsistent surf to her advantage. Some of that is luck, of course. But it also requires some savvy heat surfing and an ability to back herself, even when the odds look steep. Getting past Caroline looks close to impossible for Brisa. But so did making finals at Teahupo’o, and just look what happened.

Molly Picklum

A girl who likes juice, Molly thrilled on the North Shore. She scored a perfect ten in heaving Pipe and finished second to Caity in a wave-starved final. I wish there’d been more surfing in that final, given the skills of both women. Alas. At the Hurley Pro Sunset Beach, Molly threw down a turn for the ages and won the event for the second straight year. It was an awesome start to the year.

Molly has a less friendly relationship with small waves than she does with the big, powerful scary shit. And there were a lot of heats in small waves this year on Tour. She didn’t really thrive out there this year until Fiji, where she found a wave with some punch. After a semifinal finish at the Corona Fiji Pro, Molly jumped into fourth in the rankings, equaling last year.

Trestles doesn’t necessarily suit Molly, and small Trestles could be a battle for her. Last year, Molly lost to Caity in her opening heat. Certainly, she has the skills and the progression to go far here. There’s no reason she shouldn’t be able to beat Tati and Brisa and make a run for the title. It’s hanging right there out in front of Molly, but she’ll have to stretch to reach it.

Tati West

The surprise for me of this season had to be Tati’s performance at the Shiseido Tahiti Pro. In legit solid Teahupo’o, she scored a perfect ten and nearly beat Vahine. It was easily one of the best heats of the year — and maybe ever — in women’s surfing. Tati also won silver at the Olympics, though not in the gloriously frightening conditions she surfed against Vahine. A second place finish at Fiji slid her into the final five.

Starting from the bottom of the draw, Tati meets Molly first and faces a long trek to the world title. In truth, I do not generally think of Tati as a favorite for Trestles. But in 2021, she nearly snatched the world title straight out from under Carissa, then fresh off her Olympic gold medal. If she makes a run up the rankings, I’d expect Tati to find Caroline a bit of a roadblock to her world title dreams. But, she nearly beat one Gold medalist at Trestles, so why not another?