Prediction: Shameful World Title Thoughts!

Dark horses and a yellow jersey holder like a woman's breast!

Do you ever reflect on the brevity of fame, or of a surfer’s reign as a contender? Was it only a year or two ago that we still expected Taj Burrow to collect a trophy that was his to take since 1998? Or Jordy Smith, for whom multiple crowns awaited? Fanning, the three-timer, now a part-timer?

If we’re to study the WSL ratings after five events (the tour comprises 11 events), we find four surfers likely to challenge for the title, with two very dark horses, whom we’ll discuss in a moment.

The ratings, after the Fiji Pro, are follows:

1. Matt Wilkinson (AUS) 32,500 pts
2. Gabriel Medina (BRA) 24,000 pts
3. John John Florence (HAW) 23,900 pts
4. Italo Ferreira (BRA) 20,500 pts
5. Adriano de Souza (BRA) 20,400 pts

I’m inclined to dismiss the current world champion Adriano De Souza from contention because I believe judges are human and will instinctively recoil from another beige world title. As Brad Gerlach told me during filming for an upcoming Like Bitchin episode, and I paraphrase here, “Do I admire the hard work it took for Adriano to win a world title? Yes. Do I want to watch him surf? No.”

Which leaves us with Wilko, Gabriel, John John and Italo.

1. Matt Wilkinson was once as soft as a woman’s breasts, his preparation for events as thorough as a spontaneous uprising by enraged peasants. This year Wilko, with his peeling nose and little blue eyes, has become a competitive monster helped, in no small part, by his coach Glenn Hall. Throw away Wilko’s two worst results (a ninth and a twenty-fifth) and he sits on an almost perfect, 1, 1, 2. And yet his heat average is an unimpressive 13.50. Do world titles come with under 14 point heat averages? World title odds: four-to-one.                                                                                  
2. Gabriel Medina is a beautiful, perfect genius person with eyebrows that require daily attention. Gabriel surprised no one when he won the Fiji Pro. His low-rockered Johnny Cabianca-shaped surfboards support a simple and pleasing approach that even a non-surfer can understand. Tube, turn, air. Convinced of his own righteousness (tears!), Gabriel is cowed by no one. Heat average? 14.71. More than a full-point better than Wilko’s. World title odds: two-to-one. 
3. John John Florence, with that sulky face and hair that will redden with age, is the best of all. Never coached but infused with the history of every great surfer before him, his genetic code rewritten in the North Shore lineups by a who’s who of modern surfing. A heat average better than Gabriel. (14.80). An ability, a likelihood, of winning at Teahupoo, Trestles, Pipe. Surfing that is lucid, elegant and individual. A world champion, unlike Adriano or Gabriel, who would alienate no one. World title odds: Even chance. 
4. Youth has its dreams and, therefore, let’s dream that Italo Ferriera shows a royal flush in the back half of the season. The ability to soar is the richest of language and three of the final six events reward the vocabulary of above-the-lip surfing. And, still, Italo has the basic structure to fare well at J-Bay, Teahupoo and Pipe. World Title odds: six-to-one. 

And the dark horses? Oh these are as dark as they come.

Filipe Toledo. Can you imagine it? Out for two events. Unimpressive in Fiji. Seventeenth in the world. But with a heat average only 0.7 under that of the yellow jersey holder, I envisage a three-pack of wins (Trestles, France – if smallish, Portugal) and surprisingly robust performances at J-Bay and Tahiti. We must remember, even those famous reefs sometimes fail to gleam. Four foot Jeffreys? Five foot onshore Teahupoo? World Title odds: ten-to-one. 

Now, Kelly Slater. Do we dare dream? Does Kelly still dream? What if his mysterious malady disappears? What if the back half of the season is rich with swell. What if he wins J-Bay, backs it up with Teahupoo, then France, fights to a semi in Portugal and then snatches his famous old shotgun and wins Pipe? World title odds: twenty-to-one.