It's on, bru!
(Note: The writer, Michael Ciaramella, was completely
unaware of Chas’s preemptive Fantasy post until this one was
already completed. Considering the writer spent two hours working
on it, he decided to post this piece directly atop Chas’s musings
after retitling it appropriately.)
And how long has it been? Two, three fortnights
since we last saw Joan Duru speeding down the line, blue jersey
emblazoned across his chest?
Objectively too long, I would say.
Sadly, J-Bay has always been a sore spot in my career as a surf
fan. That’s no knock on the wave, which, clearly, is in entirely
suitable to world-class surfing, but the whole damn event happens
in the middle of the night.
If you, like Chas and me, live on America’s western seaboard,
the comp will start at 11 PM and be finished by 8 AM. I’ll be
damned if those aren’t my very hours of beauty rest!
Of course there’s the heat analyzer, plus guys Longtom, Doherty,
and Carroll to fill in the blanks but post-event analyses are never
the same as watching in realtime. They can be better, they can be
worse, but they can’t induce that flutter in your chest, the sweat
on your palms when Filipe stands up in the dying seconds, needing a
6.67 to turn his round three clash.
Awake or not, the show will go on (with some swell to boot!).
Here’s who I envision succeeding in J-Bay’s corduroy lines!
Julian Wilson: 8.5 mil
This guy wasn’t on my team until five minutes ago when, through
the endless virtue of Instagram, I saw a video of Jules making
his first-ever hole-in-one on Cape St. Francis Links. The
confidence gained from sinking a 150 meter shot will, undoubtedly,
carry into his surfing performance at this event. This will be the
most authoritative win of Julian’s career.
Jordy Smith: 11.25 mil
After winning this event twice as young’n, Jordy has struggled
at the Bay in recent years. By his sheer power and familiarity with
the break, Jordy should have a 20% advantage (on average) over
other competitors in the field. That said, heats can be slow, the
mind can waver and really, anybody can beat anybody in 2017. With
some swell in the window, Jords should lock down at least a quarter
final result.
John Florence: 11 mil
After disappointing results in the last two events, John has
remarkably lost the golden lycra to some hippy from Copacabana. It
seems infeasible that John could make yet another fatal error,
especially at J-Bay, where his long, punctuated swoops match both
the speed and size of South Africa’s favorite right-hander.
Watch for an 18-point total in round one.
Mick Fanning: 4.5 mil
Truth be told, Mick has underperformed in almost every event
this season. It would be stupid not to have him on your team,
considering his ability-to-price ratio, but I’d be lying if I said
I wasn’t a little pissed at the Queenslander. He won this event
last year with a busted paw, and placed equal-second the year
before with two-tons of nature chomping at his back. I’ll accept
nothing short of semis this time around.
Wiggolly Dantas: 4.5 mil
The strongest backside lipper on Earth belongs to Wiggolly
Dantas, and what better place to unleash it than J-Bay? Admittedly,
I’ve become disillusioned to the idea that Wiggolly will ever be a
smart competitor, but if the waves are good, he might be able to
succeed on skill alone. Three windshield wipers from the Brazilian
hammer is an 8.5, easy.
Zeke Lau: 3 mil
Zeke got a 10 at J-Bay during a QS event a few years back,
which, to memory, consisted of a huge layback, a couple carves and
a tub. A man of Polynesian descent, Zeke is strong enough to hold a
rail in places where, say, an Aryan nymph like Ethan Ewing is not.
I’d love to see a Bells (and Snapper) rematch with Jordy out at
J-Bay.
Jeremy Flores: 4.25 mil
I don’t know why, but I have a bit of a man-crush on J-Flo.
Maybe it’s his style and composure in the tube, maybe it’s the
power and technique of his frontside arc, or maybe it’s that he
doesn’t seem to give a fuck what anybody thinks about his petulant
outbursts. Whatever the reason, Jer is cheap, exciting, and has a
mean forehand hook so he’s on my team.
Jack Freestone: 3 mil
It’s either flair or flop with this kid, making every event a
serious gamble. Statistically speaking, Jack’s most likely to bow
out in round two, but he’s also the kind of guy who could sneak
into the finals should he gain a bit of confidence. Jack’s got one
of the most technically sound forehands in the world, and I hope
he’ll demonstrate that here.
