And Michel, Jack, Josh and Stu to lose…
How’d you go picking winners in France? If you had a lousy team, don’t whimper or glow like a Halloween pumpkin at us.
Two weeks go, and based entirely on statistics, we suggested either Gabriel Medina or John John Florence would win and that Kolohe Andino would be the prized dark horse.
The school teacher Balyn McDonald, whose website sings according to numbers not emotion, has a bank of stats on the Portugal event that make for compelling reading. Of course, like Scotch and avocados and most of the other things in life that are special, you learn to cultivate a taste for statistics.
Let’s go.
First, a few caveats.
Regarding John John winning a consecutive world title. Only four surfers have “gone back-to-back with titles in the modern era,” says Balyn. “Tom Carroll and Tom Curren, Andy and Kelly.”
Jordy: “He has never won two contests in a season.”
Gabriel: “Only one goofyfooter has won in Portugal and he’s no longer on tour, Kai Otton.”
Where’s that leave us?
Mick Fanning.
“Mick has won the event twice (the only surfer to do so) and he ranks near the top for Event Average Heat Score (2nd), Beachbreaks (2nd), Left/Right Peaks (5th) and 6-8′ waves (6th).”
On current form, Gabriel Medina is bringing the house down. He’s won the last two events (if y’count the pool), has the second-best form over the past three events, second-best win percentage for 2017 and fourth-best Average Heat Score for the season.
Ah, but if Gabriel is second, who is first? John John! Form, winning percentage and average heat scores.
Oowee, take out your wallet!
Now here’s who you should avoid, according to the numbers.
Michel Bourez: Averages less than ten points a heat here, and ranks in the bottom three for beachbreaks and left-right peaks.
Josh Kerr: “He’s ranked lowest of all full-time tour surfers and has the worst win percentage to match.”
Jack Freestone: Three consecutive last-places and seven last-places for the year. Ninth worst on Average Heat Score over the last three events too.
Stu Kennedy: Dead last on current form. Stu is averaging 9.45 in heats over the last three events.
Who you think gonna flash at Portugal?
Commented on Disqus? Log out, tap the Disqus button, and your old name and comments come back. The box is ours.
Your comments are still here. Every one of them.
Twelve years of BeachGrit comments came across from Disqus. Connect and we will show you how many are yours. We get your username, nothing else.
Connect Disqus to reveal.
…and in news just in, Jackie Treehorn bags the wave of the day, and the Spartan and he progress.
A great day for Lebowski’s favorite pornographer and the rest of the Cane Toads and Eugene .
Imagine Laird doing the WSL commentary for the women’s tour.
I’d turn the volume on for once
Yep.
Fuckin’ SeaBass kid ! Come on.
let’s get on a roll and boycott the finals again. 🙂
The People™ of Portugal love them some dark horse. Just this summer Portugal hoof scratched their way into quite the WSL playbook snatched spamish Inquisition. How do you prepare a dark horse to be consumed? WSL reçipe says marinate that gamey cutting block. What say ye all?
I think you are on the right track.
Yeah but it’s like the old joke, marinate overnight then remove from marinade and throw away.
Brutalfully true.
I’ve come to look forward to BG’s fantasy articles a day or two after the waiting period begins.
Unlike recent events where the forecast was meh…this one is starting out strong. Hence the fire under Derek’s ass.
A school teacher with a passion for surf statistics and an obvious glut of time… are you joinying any dots here David?
would really like for Owen Wilson to take this one out. He needs to turn on some mongrel and get angry out there. Give those Brazilians a taste of good old fashion Australian :”get the fuck out of here” attitude. But, if it is pissy closing out crap, then the judges will rig it so that big points go to those surfers who do one air on a wave.
It’s not like Owen can’t do barrels, right?
hahaha. i am just sick of the way the wsl is gifting certain surfers with points. whilst, others who seem to use an entire wave get poor scores. need to clean up the scoring system.
Serious question…is Owen okay? They showed him putting on his jersey and he was almost invisible. It’s like he has no body mass.
https://goo.gl/images/DGYQNA
I fucking love that photo. But sit down in the cheap seats you bastards!!!
Rad article! Also…who else jumped on Medina for the title at 61:1!
Cheers Derek! Even the cash out offer is tempting.
Oh tell me: what’s the cash-out offer?
https://uploads.disquscdn.c…
Oh you put a tenner on also! Derek will stand to win 60bucks!
Fucken lettin it ride!
i did already is he still paying 61 – fuck that’s what got him for 4 weeks ago
He’s paying much less now.
Kinda like to know what Longtom thinks?
Yeah, naw. What does LAIRD think?
That’s Laird™ to you, kook!!!
Sorry Massa!