And, don't forget Jordan Smith. Ripped off at Keramas, torched at Surf Ranch last year, surely a Backdoor nugget might get high-balled this time around…
I know it’s weird to have BG pouring hot oil on the WSL and still be covering the Tour, as one commentator astutely noted but I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time here.
We can still savage the inanity of the wall of positive noise and offer safe harbour to smart money.
To Pipeline.
You’ve probably seen the numbers breakdown now, with Italo in the yellow and we’ll get to that in a second.
First, Gabe’s fuck-up, as monumental as it was, shook down with the minimum collateral damage for him on Finals Day in Peniche.
Filipe fell at the next hurdle.
Kolohe too.
The real dark horse at Pipe, Kanoa Igarashi, is out of contention. Jordy did not win and still sits behind Medina and the pressure of the leader now sits with Italo.
The breakdown.
*If Italo wins Pipe he takes the World Title
*If Medina beats Italo by at least one spot (while not losing to the other three surfers), he will win the Title
*If Filipe wins the Pipe Masters, he will win the Title
*If Jordy wins the Pipe Masters and Italo loses before the final, he will win the Title
*If Italo places ninth, Medina needs a fifth, Filipe third, Jordy second, and Kolohe enters the equation needing to win Pipe.
*If Italo places 17th or 33rd, Gabs and Filipe will need a ninth, Smith a fifth, and Kolohe a second to win the Title.
Clear as mud, right.
Where we’ll deviate from current coverage is looking into the past five years of Pipeline form. The recent past being the best predictor of the near future, Thanksgiving turkey’s excepted.
Lets start 2015, Italo’s rookie year.
Italo, lost to CJ Hopgood RD3. Heat total 4.57.
Toledo, lost to wildcard Mason Ho Rd 3. Heat total 6.67.
Andino, lost to Keanu Asing Rd2. Heat total 4.90.
Jordy, lost to Gabe Medina Rd3. Heat total 4.5.
Medina. Lost Final to Adriano De Souza.
2016.
Italo, Lost to Michel Bourez Rd3. Heat total 10.34.
Medina, lost to Ryan Callinan Rd3. Heat total 11.34.
Toledo, lost to Michel Bourez Rd5. Heat total 15.5
Jordy Smith, lost to Kanoa Igarashi Quarter Final. Heat total 15.74.
Kolohe Andino, lost to Michel Bourez Semi-final. Heat total 13.53.
2017.
Italo, lost to Kanoa Igarashi Quarter-Final. Heat total 8.67.
Toledo, lost to Ian Gouevia Rd2. Heat total 11.30.
Andino, lost to Italo Ferreira Rd3. Heat total 4.17.
Jordy Smith, lost to Kelly Slater Rd3. Heat total 7.87.
Medina, lost to Jeremy Flores Quarter-Final. Heat total 6.04.
2018.
Italo, lost to Ryan Callinan Rd3. Heat total 2.43.
Toledo, lost to Kelly Slater Rd3. Heat total 6.77.
Andino, lost to Miggy Pupo Rd2. Heat total 5.00.
Jordy Smith, lost to Gabe Medina, Semi-final. Heat total 15.83.
How do you like our man Italo now? Crunching the nut of the maths means Italo has to finish in front of Medina at Pipe. He has never finished in front of Medina at Pipe.
Add 2014 into the mix (before Italo) and Medina has finalled three times in the last five years. His worst result, 2016, seems an aberration. Small backdoor, title already decided and a super-close loss to Ryan Callinan.
Kolohe’s all over the place, good at small Backdoor, lost at sea in proper Pipe.
Filipe Toledo at Pipe. It may happen one day, the Lord works in mysterious ways etc etc. But if you had to bet your kids life on someone making a heat at proper Pipe, would you place your bet on Pip? No, me neither.
Jordan Smith, despite a Pipe story lacking dramatic emphasis, ie wins, seems to have momentum onside. You’d have to think, at some point, judging might eventually swing his way during marginal calls. Ripped off at Keramas, torched at Surf Ranch last year, surely a Backdoor nugget might get high-balled this time around.
Will any of this matter, come December 10. Possibly, probably not.
Forecast, heat draw and the presence or absence of John John Florence with his new bionic knee are all vastly more important unknown unknowns.
I think though, a sly bet on Medina is not unwise.
What say you, gamblers?
Jjf sits gabby in rd 3. Claims of over scoring written in all caps and Portuguese and the #worldshameleague trend on twitter/insta pretty hard. Italo falls in rd 3 too, jordy makes the final(loses).
JJ is too high in the rankings to face GMed in R3. If it’s gonna happen early on it’ll have to be a Pipe specialist WC who offs him.
Was wondering how it was gonna play since hes been out so long
He’s, amazingly, in 8th place after sitting out half the season, such a dominant start.
If he surfs he’ll be a top seed, likely end up drawing someone from the upper 20s and someone in the high teens.
They could both shit the bed and end up in R2 together, even then, the odds of them landing in the same heat are slim to nil.
In the ASP days they kept track of this on a crumpled sheet of paper with grease stains on it. But it’s a whole new world now.
John John to play the role of title spoiler.
Jordy to take out the whole damn show without a W next to his name in 2019.
Yes, back to back Brazilian champs would not be good for the Wsl target audience. Very suspicious how Medina sent it to Pipe, if Dirk wants a non Brazilian champ, probably not hard to arrange, I think……..
Nice piece LT. The odds are a little too short to be playing for me except a cheeky bet on Felipe depending on the swell forecast. Surely he will one day win one and at $9 with one comp left that seems pretty reasonable odds. He was paying closer to $5 before the season even started. Great value.
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Only the Victorians on this site (of which there are many) will get this, but Jordy winning will be like Richmond willing the AFL grand final, with Gabby being Geelong, wallowing in salt.
If cards fall my way i’ll be at pipe this year sitting on the sand watching it. I’ll be the gringo with no sun tan sitting next to the Colombiana. Kelly can be Gary Ablett Jr. I might pat him on his little bald head.
Quantum Mechanics , probability and possible outcomes …….. It would be incredibly simple but for the throw away scores . If you subtract these two scores away before the event it makes it somewhat easier , unless of course one of the two throw away scores ends up being a keeper ….. you’re right
“this kind of thing totally breaks my brain.”
Head says Medina. Heart says Jordy must have a shot as owning a house on the north shore should mean he’s more tuned into the waves there.
Buying a house on the North Shore says “ I Care “ ( similar to the Tyler Wright moment when she declared finally she wanted to win and then did ) ……….. Slightly off subject I was looking at Taj surfing recently , seemingly enjoying retirement while commentating at the QS 10000 in Portugal and giving Tiago a lesson at home and he didn’t seem to be suffering under the yoke of not winning a title . I suppose in the past a world title meant cash immediately , and one’s name written down on the cup forever , but looking at the collective wealth of Jordy , Julian and Taj , or Dane Reynolds , money will never be a problem , and their influence on surfing in the long run may be more revered than certain world champs ………….. just last month we were all discussing Dora who never won anything ?
I say that Gabriel Medina is the only surfer in the world I am ever truly comfortable laying big stakes on.
Did anyone hear Scales and Chas ripping into Medina on the latest pod? It was outrageous. So off the mark.
Scales reckons Medina will sabotage himself in the long run, get carried away with his status. Scales clearly hasn’t been paying attention to Medina’s dedication. Sure, he likes a party, but he gets it done. As I said, I have more faith in Medina’s desire and will to win than any surfer ever. On par with Slater.
Scales is just smarting because his quiver of dating apps is bigger than Medina’s euro travel quiver. And I’m pretty sure Cabianca is based in Europe.
Chas and Dave both think Gabs is a total dick. Again, they clearly haven’t been paying attention to EVERY OTHER PRO EVER ON RECORD saying that on a personal level Medina is dead on.
Wind your necks in, boys!
I have to listen and rebut.
Yeah I considered that, but I’ve got a full timetable today so fire on!
Some Irish bloke named Mick supports your claim in a recent interview .
“I’d have to say Gabe. Over the last few month’s he’s been incredible. He’s on another level to everybody else, he’s crazy.”
Parko has said on more than one occasion that Medina is the most talented person he has ever seen stand on a surfboard.
Don’t tell Kelly
Kelly knows. That’s why he hates life.
and hates gabs…..
I only think he surfs like a dick and acts like a dick on Instagram!
I can’t comment on Instagram because I don’t use it.
But in what way does he surf like a dick? You said something about his competitiveness being an affront to the beauty of surfing, or something like that. Aside from being wishy-washy and entirely out of character for you, I’m not really sure what you’re getting at. Should he not hassle in heats? Should he not compete and be aggressive? He’s a mother-fucking competitive surfer!
I will defend Medina to the death. To be fair I know little about him, but I think that’s because he doesn’t pander to English-speaking media, and I kind of love that. And I think it’s exactly the reason Scales et al hate him.
He’s the most interesting man in surfing for me. I would dearly, dearly love to read a deep dive character profile on him.
I reckon Medina shatters any happy ending illusion I have of pro surfing and I love it. Looking at the numbers above how else do you make a day of surfing with heat totals in the single digits at one of the greatest event sites for the sport “engaging” – the commentary??. We have celebrated so many like him I reckon the cultural imperialism of the sport is being challenged with the Brazilians, that is why for me Owens win, Jeremy’s win were monumental given the current momentum.
His competitiveness out shines his surfing a lot. Trad surfers miss the days where the surfing did the talking and the tactics took a back seat. They dont view it like a 1 on 1 sport. To them its more like watching a gymnastics routine. Show what you can do on the wave above all else
Chester, I, for one, would be genuinely interested in reading an article about actual Brazilian surf ‘culture’. we all know about the competitive side and bog bothering shite, but what about the br grumpy locals? I mean, in the least you could get some here and totally out-untapped-market ELoo (short for electric toilet, right?). that would be good for a laugh.
he is just different. he doesnt play the cool surfer that rides a custom motorbike, not a hipster and neither a beachboy…actually he is “tacky” (dont know if this is the right translation), reads the bible and is not ashamed of his mother (i would if i had his mother). has a huge talent and an even bigger ego, what makes him to have the “dont give a fuck” attitude as long as he wins. i met gabriel in person and he is not half the imbecile that most of the surfers i know are. he is kind of a anti-surfer, but a good kid…..and chas, just looking at your picture (google) is very understandable that you hate him…..it is pretty much impossible a pearson that looks like you like someone like gabriel.
anyone using instagram is acting like a dick…
Gabs will go into Nexus 6 Roy Batty mode!
I’ll be glad to pour a little hot oil. As ‘someone else’ pointed out in the last few days here on BG, the Wsl doesn’t seem too concerned about what the real surf community thinks, 15 or 25 thousand on Facebook, or on a few surf websites. With the Olympics coming up, seems they have their eyes set on the “Global Market” (where the ‘real money’ is), and have their ‘own’ agenda.
They throw Chass and others an interview here and there, (a little miss-direction– camouflage their real intent, a pat on the head, good boy Chas) and then they continue on with their scheme for world dominance and their own twisted view of what surfing is (guided by Sophie, Elo etc.).
…..and if Dirk wants a ‘non- Brazilian’ champ this year, ( better for his target audience and for going into the Olympics I think), who’s gonna say no to him…. after all, Dirk’s the one who signs everybodys checks………
If I replace “WSL” with “Joos”, I’d swear you were Nick Dee
1. Gabe 2. Italo 3. Filipe .. cash it
Trying to predict–the unpredicable–is so unpredictable……..
I saw Tracks mag put up the women’s scenarios the other day on their site, you can totally go rip the numbers off and spin your own theories without doing much work at all! Still too much work for me though, but you’re a doctor of something so by default you’re more qualified for this. With a 5-year look-back of the contenders like LT did, it might even constitute an article! Which I would read and then completely forget by the time Pipe actually does roll around.
Edit: Honolua, not pipe. You get the idea though.
I know Gabs’ll fucking pull it off but gawd damn I want Italo to win it all.
I just wanna see another MRod Acai Bowl Showdown.
It’s OK nobody cares.
Ouch……..
“If Filipe wins the Pipe Masters, he will win the Title.” Haha, you cruel cunt.
Get him on Volcom or Bong so at least he has the advantage of nipping up to the house
for a few two nostril plate chasers between heats
Jeebus says no.
Pretty sure that the Brazilian Jeebus would be ok with a couple of cheeky rails.
up vote for the vote down, a rare accomplishment
i heard he will stay with JOB…who knows.
Oh I was wondering who the new Poopies was.
he already has wings….now he needs some balls and a red bull logo.
Jen, dare you not even do any research, just voice to text an article saying Carissa, Lakey, Little Occy and the other new girl
Brissa.
2ft tall occy kills it
Call Kellys ‘girlfriend’, she’ll be keeping a close eye on that side of the draw no doubt…
…no doubt…
Way beyond my brain capacity
SSD , You have successfully thrived in an all female environment on the home front for years . It is possible that you may be over qualified for the job ….?
Thrived is overstating. More like scratched and clawed my way through an endless series of closeouts on an unforgiving sandbar. Two male dogs and cats help offset things.
Camus always imagined Sisyphus smiling at the end of the day at the top of the hill , as the rock he has just struggled to push up hill , rolls down to the bottom …..I can imagine you standing there ,smiling, while patting the dog ?
Haha! Perfect. Usually chanting my mantra of “fuck! Fuckin eh, fuck me!”
Om Om Om Om ….
Mate, I do this with two teenage boys and one wife…
I like to think BG is both IRA and Sinn Fein. The PLA and the PLO. And for dear Derek, Irgun and the State of Israel.
Bravest little country in the world etc. How can you not love Golda Meir?
Or the handsome Ze’ev Jabotinsky. I’m he to your Golda! Yasser to your… Yasser! I run our violent, unhinged wing. You our impossible-to-hate, sensible and winning public face. A gloriously perfect combination and why ISIS failed. al-Baghdadi never had no handsome smooth talker.
I see myself as a sorta Mohammed Ben Abbes, lovely and bearded, the hero of Michel Houellebecq’s book, Submission.
Surely Longtom’s Yuval Noah Harari?
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I dunno, Chas…don’t reckon you look a bit more Begin-esque?
highly recommended:
“When I Lived in Modern Times”, striking and memorable work set just before the Brits packed up and left israel
I prefer gouda…
I’m a reformed hardliner that’s tired of seeing good friends killed and chooses to chart the middle course. But be wary if get on my bad side and wake the sleeping bear. I also have a handsome beard with a grey streak in it.
Hello, Gerry!
The Adam’s Family ……. Troubles ?
Its the place to be!
I have a reformed hairline. Wait no, I have a receding hairline
Does that make Stab – the DUP and by extension Ashton – Arlene Foster?