There are five surfers going into Pipe with a shot at the world title. Each of them comes with their own baggage, context and metrics…
Generally, my shtick is numbers, not words. Average heat score, win percentage, event/wave direction/wave height metrics, yada fucking yada.
(Click here to examine Balyn’s website, surf-stats.com)
Boring as fuck to most red-blooded surfers 93.67% of the time.
When I first spoke to Derek about analysing the title race, he didn’t tell me I’d be following a similar piece by a certain surf-writer doyen, and which you can read here.
I’m under no illusions. The numbers always pale in significance to the broader stories of the surfers themselves. The pros are just as fragile and flawed as the rest of us and there aren’t many metrics to reflect that accurately. Watching Kelly reluctantly coming to terms with his fading success is a gorgeous train wreck that no data set can accurately replicate.
The numbers do have a place, though.
When I find a stat that complements or even heightens the broader context of each surfer’s situation, I can offer a more resounding argument for or against them.
So, here we are.
There are five surfers going into Pipe with a shot at the world title. Each of them comes with their own baggage, context and metrics*.
Italo Ferreira
Pipe Win %: 54.55
Pipe Average Heat Score (AHS): 9.19 (11 heats)
Average place at Pipe: 11 (4 events: 13, 13, 5, 13)
Needed to win a title: A Pipe win is the only way to seal it outright.
Background: Derek’s favourite surfer (and mine) hadn’t won an event until 2018, when he proceeded to win three. Italo still found himself out of title contention due to consistency issues, which he’s improved this season while still locking in two wins from four finals. Peaking beautifully through Europe, and wearing the yellow jersey coming into Pipe, Italo looks like a genuine chance. The problem is, he hasn’t had any standout performances at heavy reef breaks (his best has been a single fifth place result at each of the Pipe/Fiji/Tahiti events and one Box bomb this year).
What to look for at Pipe: There have been several well-defined World Champion archetypes over the past few years: the workhorse (Adriano), the gifted natural (John), the talented contest machine (Mick, Gabriel). Italo isn’t any of these, or to be fair, maybe he’s all of them, he works hard, he competes well, he is focused and he’s certainly talented. What’s different is that none of those traits define him quite like they did the others. For Italo, who surfs fast, hucks any section, slays coffees and throws down some of the most entertaining claims on tour, it’s raw energy that will define his success. A fantastic trait, no doubt, but the question of whether it will be enough to get him through the tightest title race in years, at the biggest venue on tour, will be fascinating to see answered.
Gabriel Medina
Pipe Win %: 75
Pipe AHS: 13.78 (35 heats)
Average place at Pipe: 6.25 (8 events: 5, 9, 13, 2, 2, 13, 5, 1)
Needed to win a title: To finish one round/place above Italo and not behind any other contenders.
Background: Since 2013, Gabe regularly made Europe his bitch and cruised to three Pipe finals. But after his worst-ever France result and a priority mistake in Portugal, Gabriel’s seemingly inevitable third title was put on ice. He still has the second best win percentage and best AHS of all surfers this season, and he has the best record at Pipe of all the contenders. His error against Caio, while stupid, did result from him being so fucking hungry to win, a characteristic of champions. While he has cooled recently, there are still plenty of positives for Medina heading into the chaos of Pipe, with most betting agencies keeping him as the favourite to win this year.
What to look for at Pipe: Could the ice-cold Medina suffer another uncharacteristic melt? Will he back off with his hassling strategies and just let his surfing talk? What will Neymar and his millions of keyboard warriors to do to Gabe’s opponent if he’s eliminated early? With a solid history at Pipe and heavy favouritism, Gabe’s real story will be whether he will bounce back from Europe or continue to end the season with a whimper.
Filipe Toledo
Pipe Win %: 36.84
Pipe AHS: 9.68 (19 heats)
Average place at Pipe: 15 (6 events: 25, 5, 13, 9, 25, 13)
Needed to win a title: He will need a best-ever result at Pipe. If he wins, and Italo/Gabe don’t make the final, then he’ll be the 2019 champion. Anything else, and the variables become all-consuming.
Background: Filipe managed to move beyond his ‘small-wave specialist’ reputation with an increasingly formidable rail game and solid performances at respectable rights including J-Bay and Bells. What he hasn’t managed to shake is his reputation for holding back in juicy waves, especially on his backhand. Poor efforts in Tahiti and at the Box this year only entrenched the perceived depth of Filipe’s big wave weakness. It’s increasingly likely that, if he’s ever going to win a title, he’ll need to wrap it up in Europe.
What to look for at Pipe: Remember when Pipe was meant to have been pulled from the tour? Permits and politics were all stacked against the WSL and there was talk of an alternate season-ender in friendlier reef breaks off the coast of Western Sumatra? Filipe must be pining for that alternative reality right about now. The big question everyone wants to know about Filipe in this title race is, Will he go? If we get proper Pipe, then all eyes will be on Pip. At least he’ll be too consumed by the waves to worry about the title details.
Jordy Smith
Pipe Win %: 52.94
Pipe AHS: 11.43 (23 heats)
Average place at Pipe: 11.89 (9 events: 17, 5, 13, 13, inj, 25, 13, 5, 13, 3)
Needed to win a title: “If Jordy wins the Pipe Masters and Italo loses before the final, he will win the Title,” says the WSL. Ain’t that a big ask.
Background: This hyper-talented serial under-achiever had his best Pipe result last year with a close semi-final loss to eventual winner Medina. While Jordy’s consistency this year has been an asset, it’s also a weakness as he must progress further than his peers to improve his overall total. He’s peaking at the right time, with a positive result in Portugal and clutch effort against Kanoa, but Jordy again showed fragility in the final when presented with a red-hot Italo.
What to look for at Pipe: Jordy won’t have as much to prove at Pipe as Italo/Filipe/Kolohe. If Backdoor fires, he could be right there amongst it. But if a competitor drops a 10 on him, he will need to do more than simply burn them while in a combination situation. Jordy’s biggest obstacle seems to be between his ears, so it will be high drama watching to see when/if he’ll crack.
Kolohe Andino
Pipe Win %: 37.5
Pipe AHS: 9.35 (21 heats)
Average result at Pipe: 17.75 (8 events: 25, 13, 25, 13, 25, 3, 13, 25)
Needed to win a title: Divine intervention. This sucks for Brother as the big man seems to be working for the Brazilians. Technically, Kolohe can win if he makes the final at Pipe. This is good because it doesn’t require him to win an event. It’s bad because it requires all four of the other contenders to get, at best, seventeenths (Medina, Filipe and Italo) or ninths (Jordy). If they progress further, then the numbers get tighter and tighter. For example, Gabriel or Italo need only a fifth to negate Kolohe’s result entirely.
Background: After wearing the Yellow Jersey in Tahiti, Kolohe flatlined with consecutive seventeenths and missed a title via his one possible avenue: consistency (winning events doesn’t seem to be his thing). He got thrown a massive bone via Medina’s European fade, but again managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of potential victory against fellow title choker Jordy in the Portugal quarters. His Pipe record smells worse than Griff’s Quik Pro France wetsuit.
What to look for at Pipe: The only acceptable outcome for Kolohe would be to pull off an inexplicable and long-overdue event win. It still wouldn’t guarantee a world title, but it might be enough to get the monkey (and keyboard hacks like myself) off his back going into the 2020 season. My biggest consideration towards Brother at this event is trying to guess which local wildcard will bring him undone, as I’m looking for a cheap option to round out my fantasy team.
So, who will win?
The numbers say Medina. If Jordy hadn’t been pantsed by Italo in the final a few days ago, I’d say he’d have had a good shot. His numbers would have been slightly better than Italo’s and he would have had the confidence needed to pull it off. Kolohe’s situation is too schadenfreude, dependent on the failure of others. Filipe needs to overcome so many years of well-supported data against him in big waves. Italo could definitely win, especially if he builds momentum and starts running off pure adrenaline, but I feel this may be his cliched ‘lose one before you win one’ year.
So, Medina for 2019.
Italo for 2020.
*All stats taken from my own databases. They vary from some WSL stats as they only include 2013-2019 data and because the WSL scores a second place in a three-man heat as a loss.
Brazil: Sun, Samba & Surf.
Can’t wait for the next Medina free surfing edit. I just love his flowing style and his cool vibe.
So I can see.
I love how you’re calling the spreadsheet guy a jock.
Thanks VONR,
I have no idea what you’re saying, but I appreciate the nursery rhyme reference.
Hah – March 2020 The tide shredded burger mess of Piha. 10,000.
Fuck me drunk.
Ha, you might get someone upset with rhetoric like that……….
Hey Balyn, what’s the p-value for someone other than the current #1 ranked surfing taking out the title?
Hey faith healer,
I’ve never run any numbers on that; it would be interesting.
Most of my historical data is from year’s end, but I’d need rankings from the penultimate event.
It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between the winners performance at the last event before pipe. Would make for some interesting betting odds.
Have you tried taking the total scores for the year and subtracting the score the surfer would have received from the last event, where they eventually sealed their win? This would at least tell you their standings coming into pipe.
I did do a little investigation, and I saw that, in the past 9 years, 6 world titles came down to pipe (Kelly in 2010/11 and John in 2016 had sewn it up early). Of those 6 years, the points leader going into Pipe was the world champion 5 times. Adriano was in 3rd after Europe in 2015 (Mick 1st, Filipe 2nd), but won the Pipe event and took the title. At a little over 83% conversion rate for tour leaders (small sample size), maybe Italo could be a bigger chance than I first thought?
Also, the average place of the world champion at Pipe over those 9 years is 2.33, with a third of them winning. John’s ‘dead rubber’ in 2016 was the worst, with a 5th. Other than that one year, a Pipe semi final has been the minimum result of a world champion.
A minimum of a semi-final, aye. Now that’s a tasty statistic. That would possibly be a good metric for giving odds on the title.
By making the assumption that at least a semi-final is needed, then comparing that with previous results, you could make some reasonable predictions.
Do you think it would be a reasonable assumption to compare results at similar events to pipe? Say Fiji, the box, and Tahiti. I wonder if there is a correlation between being able to perform at these events and being able to perform at pipe. And if there is no strong correlation, you could argue that pipe is as much a head game for the front runners, as it is a technical challenge for all.
Which one of them is an atheist? I need to know who to root for.
There was also a table that simplified the race, but I think the formatting was too much:
https://uploads.disquscdn.c…
That’s easier to understand at a glance
Speaking of moneyball, anyone see this story of former Wozzle exec Jeff Bizzack paying $250k to get his kid into college as a volleyball player? Off to prison he goes; maybe the lululemon and teeth whitening league of surfing has a seedy underbelly after all?
https://www.sfgate.com/news…
Follow the money trail … always leads to dirt … ?
Wow, Jordy!!! how can we all not be rooting for Jordy… that would be the second coming of an ADS title, it would be the best fucking thing that could happen for this shit show..where did that come from? on the Pipe note, imagine if they had pulled off changing Pipe to February.. where would this all be coming down to.. Would they have the last event of the year in some shitty beach break like Rio or wetsuits in Trestles?? Pipe is the only amphitheater to play this out in, Pipe is the show, it is what we come for..
This is all lies and you know it.
Bullshit whipped up by people who just want to make money by getting people panicked and depressed.
Look at that poor dumb cunt Hawking. He was a puppet poster boy. Literally controlled. Some dark fucker with an X-box controller behind the curtains making him say all sorts of shit in behalf of the Mathematical-Statistical Industrial Complex.
Physics, math all that shit is fake news. Wake up sheeple.
ha
You wouldn’t laugh if you woke up to find a Number Two on your pillow next to you, eh?
fark CB, thats dark. what is it mate? the bushfires? or just the brazilian storm?
Number twos are usually kinda dark.
Friends don’t let friends do numbers, man.
i’m dying.. my dog dropped one on the floor while eating her breakfast this morning.. not kidding.. the old girl is having some troubles… daily deuces left for my feet to enjoy
I hope you don’t end up in a black hole ….. ?
Fuckers lyin constantly.
Today I was sitting, minding my own business, praying for the area of a circle to be revealed to me.
Some Mathmatical freak came all up in my grill and tried to tell me that pies are square. I mean… WTF???!!
I had to tell him that pies are round. But he wouldn’t listen.
22/7 ….. what is Pie doing with the other 2 hours a day …. slacker .
Dark fucker controller guy joysticked him right into the sex club. Pervert!
Preach it, CB! The truth shall be revealed.
More than the numbers you list, I totally agree with your analysis of the surfers.
Well done.
Cheers, Mads.
Agreed, too read. Can we see one for the bottom side of the draw? Who needs to do what to requalify?
I can’t really dig deep into the requalification story until the QS 10000s have been decided.
I’d be happy to write something though, as it rivals the title for pure cut-throat drama.
John John is doing the Triple Crown apparently so you’re prob gonna have to re-write this. Poor cunt.
John can’t win the title, so his only impact will be playing spoiler by drawing some of the contenders in the quarters/semis.
I’ll do an Olympic article featuring the golden boy/Seth/Kelly and all of the Brazil/Australia qualification iterations soon.
Cheers boy
I’d love, love love to see a wicked troika of JJ, JOB and Jack Robbo in this years PipeMasters.
It’s the one scenario I can imagine that I’d enjoy watching the seeding round.
More carnage to come again in round 3. It would be fantastic.
I had a sneaky look at Jack’s QS rating after the Comp today, wouldn’t he be great on tour. Unfortunately no chance, this year at least
With 2 QS 10,000’s left he could easily do it. Dusty Payne came from way down the pack a few years ago. Hope it’s solid.
The Haliewa Pro 2014 was the best QS I have ever seen . Guys were coming 3rd and 4th , regularly , with 14 + totals and the final was a real beauty with Dusty and Julian in the final . Dusty won the battle but Julian won the war / triple crown …
so did i, there should be a wildcard every year for people like him
With his performance out sunset it’s pretty achievable. A couple of rounds at Haleiwa and a finals at sunset he will be on
Don’t count Robo out.
Fred was in a similar position a few years back when he qualified. Good results at Sunset and Haleiwa got him over the hump.
farq i would love to see that too Astrobaby !
You know what’s fucked up?
The top 34 on the QS were unaffected by 8ft Sunset.
System is broken.
Hopefully Sunset shows up for the 10000!
The Vans comp was so good.
One of the best this year, yet means so little??
Ha – I just checked and see what you’re saying.
Yea – that’s bullshit. They have to fix that in a hurry and it’s why we don’t get to see the best surfers on the CT.
They need to somehow weight the contests so that the events held in good waves/sizable waves reward the surfers more accurately with points.
Each year we get a fresh crop of what are mainly QS grinders with the odd stand out phenom breaking through.
That’s been ok up until now but it doesn’t accurately reflect the abilities of many on the qs when the 10000s are mainly held in sub-par shit (the great granddaddy of these being HB) and therefore the points are skewed toward the more accomplished small wave groveller/spin artist grinder.
If WSLs goal is to have the worlds best surfers in the worlds best waves they need to fix that up now.
Edit: And yea – enough of the single manoeuvre being given a fucken 10. 8 points tops for a huge Italo style one is enough.
Fuck surfing’s weird. Been watching and doing it my whole life. It’s just a square peg in a round hole. Sunset is less prestigious than fucken Huntington. Run the downhill on a green. Fucken.
I like my surf contests. And I like less people interested in surf and for that I thank you WSL.
Like your thinking to make things fairer, but not sure weighting the comps at different sizes for more points is best. For any bona fide world champ, you’d reckon he and she would need to show the judges and all us fans that they are consistent and more than capable in every sort of surf, including small beach break conditions for aerial and trick surfing. There are too many similar beach breaks on the tour at the moment, with France, Portugal and Brazil, all providing close-out thumpers that can get good on their day. Need to get Sunset back on tour, Haleiwa too, along with G’Land and, or, Cloudbreak, plus Trestles for California. That right hander where they had the 10,000 QS at Ericiea looks much better than Supertubos.
I’ll tell ya what I don’t want to see – and that’s a whole heap of spin specialists at G land or anywhere good really.
Just coz they can do well in shitty beachies means that they get to surf some waves of consequence with fuckall out ?
Nah – that’s fucked.
Edit: And fuck them for putting Gland back on tour. Fucken wankers.
I agree, they should have just gone to Ulus. already a shitshow with plenty of options nearby.
Yeah, you are right – Ulu a much better option with inside racetracks if small, Peak if middling and Outside Corner when big. Plus it can handle a live crowd.
My wife said , (a German VAL GAL ) . said while she was enjoying watching the QS3000 at Sunset last night , that this is what she wants to see . Big green nasty waves of consequence , which make you gasp every time someone takes off on a bomb , pulls in or has the audacity to hit the lip and not the Rumpelstiltskin Open where surfers are forced literally to spin (In the air ) straw into gold.
Kaipo claimed on the livestream that G Land was back on tour for 2020 … so it’s possible that they are trying to put the dream back into the not so dreamy CT tour ?
There was an unusual case of a 10 for a single manoeuvre in R4H3 when Jack Robinson was given a 10 for a barrel, but he missed an opportunity for a massive carve on the inside section (he went for it but fell). So where would the judges be able to go if another competitor had ridden a similar barrel and also nailed an end section turn? Especially since power turns were the main scoring moves of the event.
Compared to his 9 in the same heat the barrel was a 13 to 15 even with the fall on the last section . I remember Jordy’s dad being angry at his pouting child when he jumped off , not completing his last turn , even though he got a 10 a few years back at Jordy’s Bay ….. Possibly now Felipe’s Bay or Medina’s Bay …. Big Fan of Van Zyl . Boys in Hawaii we’re so worried about correctly pronouncing Zyl that they didn’t think about asking how to pronounce Van.. ?
My mate ( a Van de M…. ) from the Cape explained to me in 93 ….”. Mr Bicko , it is not pronounced Van with a V sound but like Fan with an F …. ! “
fun duh Mehrrva
Ja !
There probably won’t be another barrel similar to that though, it was rather exceptional
I didn’t see that one but in any case I think a takeoff to deep barrel and exit is not in anyway a single manoeuvre – so many components to make it look seamless. Imnsho only of course.
But yea, I agree – the judges do paint themselves into a corner frequently with nutso scores.
A 10,000 means so much! The opposite of Huntington, a big grunty beast that the small guys just get bucked off
Nice observation, ric. It would have been great to throw a few more points at such a solid event.
There is just one surfer double qualified at the moment (Silva), and only one more top 22 CT guy inside the QS top 20.
The triple Crown will shake that up though…
Yeah thanks Just.B. Good article. Whole thing seems dysfunctional
Will be interesting watching the final two 10,000’s. The CT guys always seem to step up. Some of them are also carrying 4 QS events and replacing small points so they will rocket up the ratings quicker then the average QS warrior. I find the QS / CT relegation more interesting then the world title
Well, this year at least the world title race is interesting.
On the relegation: Cutoff should be 20.000 points, so the top 4 should be safe. There are a depressing numer of former and current CT´ers qualified or close to qualification- 8 of the top 11 currently qualifying plus another 3 in the top 20. Anybody below that bascially needs two finals to qualify. True rookies could be Jake Marshall (needs to advance out of abouth two heats to safely qualify), is seeded in the Rd64 which makes a huge difference. Jorgann Couzinet choked in Hawaii last year and I expect him to do the asem this year. Sammy Pupo needs to advance out of 3 heats or so, which is a big ask in the Triple Crown. Barron Mamiya sneaked close to qualification with the last result at Sunset, being a local should help him.
My guess for the qualifiers would be Top4, Marshall, Morais, O´Leary, S. Pupo, Mamiya, Kennedy and Jack Robbo having to wait for Pipe for double qualifiers. Freesteone will be in top ten but has already qualified via the CT, Silva might need his QS slot. Off the CT Bailey, Christie, Leo (WC to Mikey and AdS), Mendes, Lau and probably Seabass(needs a quarter or better a semi), Duru, MRod, Panda. Crisanto should make Rd 4 to be safe.
When you look at adjusted ratings for the bottom dwellers of the CT is gets pretty interesting. Holding 33rds will work in their favour as long as they make one round as their point increase far more. The panda had to make more rounds to make any points.
What’s fucked up is Jack Robbo has won the Volcom Pipe Pro and a 3rd at pumping sunset and still sits in the 20’s on the QS.
So off. Not to mention the Box performance.
Watched it again today. Toledo scrambling furiously over a good one with priority while Jack swings and gets a nine.
He’s not cut out for the terrible waves he’ll be forced to surf on tour like bells and mainbreak.
Dont worry, WSL has managed to bring back almost twin brothers to WT. Imagine the Pupos battling away for 17ths, how enjoyable
If it’s small Backdoor
I’m betting my testicles
On Boo Toledo
Jordy will wither
Faced with a fierce opponent
The ghost of himself
Last years semi wronged
Jordy needs to win this year
Or flop like Jools did
I’ve rewatched that semi so many times; Jordy won it for sure.
Betting Testicles.
A novel way to gamble;
Double or nothing?
However you may try
It’s not possible
To out haiku Edward
He is the undisputed master.
specially with your poor metrics…
Truth
Job will win the comp
On an inflatable couch
With poopies on board