Betting odds for Filipe Toledo to win Olympic gold shorten dramatically after small surf forecast for Teahupoo revealed

"It's unlikely we'll see a real banger of a swell…"

Following a shock small-surf forecast for Teahupoo, bookmakers have slashed betting odds for Brazilian small-wave wizard Filipe Toledo, despite his well-document struggle with the wave.

Toledo, a twenty-nine-year-old daddy of two as well as the holder of two world crowns, has long had a difficult relationship with the Tahitian lefthander, as has this writer, five campaigns, zero tubes. 

You’ll recall, one month ago, when the king of surf journalists himself, Surfline’s Nick Carroll, openly declared that Filipe Toledo should give his Olympic spot to Italo Ferreira. 

In an ironic twist, it was against Ferreira in 2015 where Toledo suffered the ignominy of becoming one of only two surfers in pro surfing history to paddle in from a heat without a wave being caught. 

“Fail-wise, it was just beyond epic,” the surfing historian Matt Warshaw told BeachGrit. “And so very public… Filipe’s deal is un-spinnable. He isn’t ready for prime time at Teahupoo… I’m his biggest north-of-50 fan, and I feel sort of crushed by what I saw.” 

Now, howevs, with Surfline predicting “small but rideable/kinda fun and quite westerly south-west swell inn the head high-ish range” and revealing “it’s unlikely we’ll see a real banger of a swell” the odds that Filipe Toledo will win gold have dropped from 26-1 to a very sharp 17-1. 

Tour observers have also noted his recent Instagram posts where the preternaturally talented natural footer demonstrates remarkable calm in small, barrelling Teahupoo. 

Gabriele Medina, John John Florence, Jack Robinson remain the ultra-favourites, however. 

Medina pays 3.45, John John 4.80 and Jackie Robinson 5.75. 

In the women, local Vahine Fierro and Caroline Marks tie for shortest odds, 4.40-1. 

The Paris 2024 Olympic surfing competition at Teahupoo in Tahiti is scheduled to take place between July 27 and August 4, 2024.