Waves of Doom! Climate Creep will destroy $194M California Surf Goldmine

"For those absolute bores who call the ocean their church, prayers to Poseidon are worth a try."

While Surfer magazine whores out a front-page story shilling for the new Chevy Trail Boss, BeachGrit delivers stories that matter, that matter to you, to me, even that chunky kid covered in sand rolling in the whitewash. (You know the one.)

No, I’m not talking about the real estate section, but something almost of equal value: the end of civilization. 

Climate change (have you heard?) is apparently set to play spoiler for breaks worldwide as ocean levels rise. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the sea is creeping up the beach at a rate of approximately 2.5mm per year and that rate is increasing. It is estimated that by 2050, the California coast could see an increase of 24cm. I don’t know metric, but that seems like a lot.

The upswing? We’ll be that much closer to the water from the parking lot. 

The downside? You can do the long-range geometry and write the end of the story, but practically speaking, sea-level rise alters the tides and the waves along with them. Imagine your break without a low tide to steepen things up.

But what’s to be done? (Vote NO! on climate change!) After all, we can’t see the creeping ocean so it’s a drag to give effort to something way, way down the line. Just think of your retirement plan. It waits dry as we spring for our third helping of Cordell Millers, and the future just a fuzzy wondering far off in another world. 

For those absolute bores who call the ocean their church, prayers to Poseidon are worth a try.

Fortunately, a few vanguards are putting their heads on it in a clever effort to pressure government administrations into action. 

The Save the Waves Coalition released a monumental two-year study this week detailing the economic impact of surfing in the Santa Cruz, California area. According to the findings, completed in partnership with the science-minded Black Surf Santa Cruz and funded by the California state agency Ocean Protection Council for 200 grand, surfing around Santa Cruz’s 31 breaks rakes in 194 million bucks annually. “Surfonomics,” as it’s been coined by former Surfrider prez Chad Nelson in his dissertation at UCLA, is nothing new. 

Coalition coordinator Shaun Burns describes it simply. “People come here, they spend their money at restaurants, coffee shops. There’s the boardwalk, there’s many places that utilize the ocean and how beautiful the coastline is here. And one of the biggest draws to people visiting here and staying here, even though with sales and rent going up a lot, is surfing in the ocean.”

The Save the Waves research takes Surfonomics a step further by showing a direct relationship between a rising ocean and diminishing economic prosperity for Santa Cruz and elsewhere.

According to the report, “The data and analysis revealed that all 31 surf breaks evaluated will see a decrease in surfable conditions at 1 foot of sea level rise. Even more alarming, at 3 feet of sea level rise more than half of all the surf breaks will be significantly diminished or lost completely, assuming no adaptation measures are taken. It is estimated that up to 40% of revenue generated annually could disappear.

Burns, a former WSL journeyman, stated that the report hopes to push California officials into action. They want to increase the number of surf reserves statewide, “prioritizing surf breaks through climate adaptation, water quality, and equitable access.” 

Burns hopes to add to last year’s AB 452, the bill that would allow local governments to identify and conserve surf break ecosystems for recreation and economic value as part of the state’s conservation goals.

“Coastal policy should aim to support decisions and infrastructure that encourages more Californians to visit surf breaks as there is significant economic value that is generated.”

Down the coast, some are taking tangible steps to mitigate the effects of the changing tides and waves. A serious effort is in play to drop an artificial reef in Pacifica, where the break wall is failing as a result of sand loss. 

Activists and engineers Rob Caughlan and Bob Battalio are actively petitioning town officials for a rock, steel, and sandbag structure in hopes of both saving the buildings perched above the break wall and increase the flow of dough through added surf dollars. Currently, a similar mound sits in Palm Beach off the Gold Coast and is doing just fine with some right-handers breaking over happy sea life. 

For the short-sighted, the artificial reef angle is a win-win. Forget about sea-level rise; we can surf forever, and our town can rake in the bucks. Surfin’s a binez, and binez is good, forever.

But that uppity ocean is still coming, whether we study it, build a $45 million surfing lump in Pacifica, or scrunch our noses as we shake our protest signs at the clouds.

UC Santa Cruz professor Gary Griggs plays spoiler. “We have to acknowledge that the climate is changing,” Griggs said. Sea levels are rising, erosion is increasing, and storms, and the strong waves and flooding they create, are worsening each year. “We’re holding on to an edge that’s moving,” he said, and it’s time to admit defeat. 

“One way—really the only way, is managed retreat,” he explains.

De-pres-sive, Gary!

However you slice it, the Save the Waves study provides elected shot-callers with some hard data to chew on.  Burns believes it’s a start. 

“I kept thinking of the analogy, only a surfer knows the feeling, while working on this project. Now, with this study, the economic value of a wave, and all 31 surf breaks in Santa Cruz, can be communicated to non-surfers, especially policymakers who make decisions based on numbers. Hopefully, this helps show the importance of protecting waves, managing them properly, and including them in future planning and policy.”

Either way, I’m sure everything will work out fine for everyone.