VALpocalypse soon.
Back in 1968, a published book spread much fear and consternation. Co-authored by former Stanford professor Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, former Stanford researcher Anne H. Ehrlich, The Population Bomb predicted the too many peoples on world would lead to earth-wide famine, massive death and an overall bummer vibe. Global population was 3.7 billion folk at the time.
These days, global population hovers over 8 billion folk and while there might be an overall bummer vibe, worldwide famine and massive death never materialized.
The Ehrlichs have been cast as silly alarmists but their prediction is set to come true, at least as it pertains to the surf world.
Days ago, you see, Princeton professor Markus Brunnermeier re-animated the corpse of the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes as an AI bot in order to ask it questions about AI. Keynes, father of Keynesian Economics, was often right about many things, though died in 1946.
The bot version consumed over 12,00 pages of Keynes writing and the few available recordings of him in order to shoot the breeze.
Here is a bit of Brunnermeir and the Keynes bot chat:
Brunnermeier: Professor Keynes, when you wrote your essay “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” it was the start of the Great Depression. A majority of Americans were poor. Education was a luxury. Yet a handful of folks were so rich, they didn’t need to work at all.
Keynes: Indeed. I predicted that by 2030, the United States could be as much as eight times richer per head. America beat that prediction: Your society is already eight times richer, and it’s only 2026.
Brunnermeier: Our lives are not perfect, but overall, we are much better off than we used to be. Technological advancements lifted more than one billion people out of poverty, even as the world’s population quadrupled.
Keynes: Absolutely. I also predicted that in four years, you would be living lives of such material abundance that everyone would need to work far less, perhaps 15 hours a week. From what I can tell, that has not come to pass.
Brunnermeier: Correct. But now we have artificial intelligence. Do you think A.I. could fulfill your prediction of a 15-hour workweek? And in four years our lives could be predominantly ones of leisure?
Keynes: Unfortunately, I see the emergence of A.I. introducing new challenges. I fear you may end up with skilled and overworked professionals with money but no time, and the rest of society with time but no money.
A huge chunk of society with time and no money? The exact two ingredients needed for the VALpocalypse.
Crap soft-topped surfboards are, of course, relatively cheap and the ocean is essentially free. The time-full, money-less masses will, no doubt, whittle away their useless hours bobbing in lineups because why not?
It was fun while it lasted, I guess.
But to what activity will you pivot with all your time and poverty?
Something to think about.
Commented on Disqus? Log out, tap the Disqus button, and your old name and comments come back. The box is ours.
Your comments are still here. Every one of them.
Twelve years of BeachGrit comments came across from Disqus. Connect and we will show you how many are yours. We get your username, nothing else.
Connect Disqus to reveal.
There was a time when lineups swarmed with Stand Up Paddleboards. Then they were gone. These days you see only a fraction of what was. Kooks realized that sweeping is hard and transporting SUPs is a pain. They moved onto something else. One can only hope that the current scourge of Covid Adult Learners will come to the same conclusion about surfing and abandon their 9-foot soft tops and bougie Bings to the garage rafters. Until then I’m gonna sit back and enjoy a HamSammish.
Stoked to see one of my Jersey Shore homebreaks in photo with a BG article on a not-that-crowded summer day…
If they haven’t showed up by now, they probably (hopefully), won’t.
I’ve seen many fun 3 to 4 foot days in the last few months in north county, with literally just a handful of guys out.
PS
If you don’t start as a teen or younger — the (lifetime, sustained), stoke just ain’t gonna be there, (I believe),
My neighbor: “I’m a big fan of Erlich and I was the first non-scientist to get a piece published in Scientific American.”
“Great job, Comrade!”
Might as well dust off the ol’ yo-yo.
Still nothing about KI or CS or the other comps around????
More incentive to get comfortable in shallow reefs and slabs .
not an economist ,but if we’re talking Keynesian economics will the government give VALs free boards and ignore whether there’s a good supply of waves? And the core lords will howl about it and pretty soon the VALs will all lose interest and the boards they own will become significantly devalued??
Should this occur, the demise of the EU/UK will further accelerate so surfing the west coast of Spain and France during the best summer months will be cheaper than current costs. So we can take our free boards over there and surf our brains out.
Had to learn a bunch of Coase theorem stuff back in the day. Interesting and useless lol
Humboldt State Uni ‘1975: took a class on Carlos Casteneda’s “The Teachings of Don Juan.” At the time I was just overcoming HST’s Fear& Loathing. To say I wasn’t confused would have been a BOLD-FACED LIE~
The Bomb was also required reading!
Did you learn how to stop worrying???
yep, walk the earth like you’re an indian. there was an acid trip in a Yurok tribal festival where i find myself in a sweat lodge, near the river and being drawn to it only to re-enter the tee-pee and find myself surrounder by all ages. I was the protector of the group: mostly elders and children. I realized I was the protective warrior then left to join the festival crowd and the rock ‘n roll band. A lesser man would have floated downstream and vanished.